High Wind Warning 1, NWS Sacramento, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
253 AM PDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues through the end of the week, with
periods of moderate to heavy snow today. A brief early weekend
lull will then be followed by another system Sunday into Monday
with another potential system on the horizon later next week.
Periods of moderate to occasional major travel impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A robust, but progressive shortwave is tracking toward interior
NorCal early this morning. Radar returns are rapidly increasing
across the region with the arrival of this system and periods of
moderate to heavy precipitation are expected throughout the day.
Heaviest precipitation is anticipated at higher elevations,
generally above 2000 feet, although a low 5 to 15 percent chance
of isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today from
Interstate 80 southward. Additionally, a a window of gusty south-
southeast winds is expected this morning through the early
afternoon as a surface front progresses. Strongest Valley gusts up
to 45 mph are expected from around Chico southward at this time,
with a Wind Advisory in effect from 5am PDT this morning through
5pm PDT this evening.

Outside of thunderstorms, mostly moderate precipitation is
expected, with totals across the lower elevations remaining around
0.25 to 0.5 inches. Across the northern Sacramento Valley,
Northeast foothills, and Sierra/southern Cascades, precipitation
totals of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are anticipated. Snow levels are
expected to remain relatively steady around 2000 to 3000 feet
today for much of the region today, although some lingering
uncertainty surrounding northern Sacramento Valley snow levels
this morning does exist. This uncertainty is primarily tied to the
strength of mid level frontogenesis with the approaching
shortwave and the conditional impact of resultant localized
cooling. While most accumulations are expected above 2000 feet,
there is some nonzero potential for a brief period of accumulating
snowfall as low as 1000 feet in the northern Sacramento Valley
this morning.

Otherwise, snowfall totals of 6 to 15 inches are expected above
2000 feet and up to 2 feet over peaks for the Coast Range and
portions of the northern Sacramento Valley, including the
northeast foothills, Burney Basin, and Shasta County mountains.
Along the Sierra/southern Cascades, snowfall totals of 10 to 18
inches are expected above 4000 feet with up to 2 feet over peaks,
while accumulations of 5 to 10 inches remain possible between 2000
and 4000 feet. Periods of moderate to major travel impacts are
expected, with hazardous conditions along both the Interstate 80
and Interstate 5 (in Shasta County) corridors anticipated today.
As the shortwave remains progressive, a brief period of ridging
aloft looks to build in through most of the weekend. Some showers
may linger across far northern Shasta County during this time, but
predominantly dry weather is anticipated for the remainder of
interior NorCal, although temperatures will remain near to
slightly below normal.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Friday)...
Some uncertainty continues with the next expected trough late
weekend into early next week, but additional periods of at least
moderate precipitation are anticipated as it moves through.
Ensemble guidance generally agrees that the overall trajectory of
the system would favor potential for slightly higher precipitation
totals relative to the Friday system, but some uncertainty
regarding the magnitude of the attendant atmospheric river plume
keeps forecast confidence in exact details low at this time.
Current probabilities moving into next week are as follows:

Probability of Rain > 1" Late Sunday-Tuesday AM: 20-40% Valley/foothills

Probability of Snow > 12" Late Sunday-Tuesday AM: 60-95% above 4500'

Probability of Wind Gusts > 40 mph Sunday: 60-95% north of I-80

Probability of Thunderstorms Monday: 15-25%

It continues to look like most precipitation is expected to be
coming to an end by Tuesday morning, with primarily lingering
mountain showers anticipated at this time. Ensemble guidance is
trending toward continued active weather moving into late next
week, but consensus indicates a stretch of dry weather much of
Tuesday through Wednesday. Regardless, be sure to monitor the
latest forecast at weather.gov/sto and plan ahead for continued
cool, wet and windy weather into early next week!

&&

.AVIATION...
While some localized VFR conditions will be possible at times,
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions expected across interior NorCal
much of the next 24 hours as a quick moving system moves through.
Occasional periods of heavy precipitation may result in LIFR at
times as well, particularly along higher terrain. Snow levels
expected to remain steady around 2000 to 3000 feet today. South to
west winds gusting 30 to 40 kts at times expected at TAF sites,
gradually tapering off after 21z today.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Burney
Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Mountains Southwestern Shasta
County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento
Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Carquinez Strait
and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-
Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

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