Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2025
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 15, 2025, 1:55 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2025, 1:55 PM CDT (18:55 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2025, 5:47 PM CDT
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 42 counties
Baxter County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Perry County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Pope County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Butler County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 60%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 60%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
3 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Lawrence, Randolph | 16 min |
| May 15, 3:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Clay, Greene | 20 min |
| May 15, 4:48 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Craighead, Poinsett | 21 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 533 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -738 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1104 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 249 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 228 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
016
WWUS20 KWNS 151853
SEL2
SPC WW 151853
ARZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-160000-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North-Central into Northeast Arkansas
Far Western Kentucky
Far Southeast Missouri
Far Northwest Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Line of storms moving through north-central Arkansas
continues to organize as it moves quickly eastward. The downstream
airmass is warm and buoyant, suggesting the potential for this
cluster to continue over the next few hours. Strong gusts and large
to very large hail are possible with this cluster, as well any other
storms that develop across the region.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast
of Poplar Bluff MO to 55 miles east southeast of Russellville AR.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26040.
...MosierSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 12:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Cross, Faulkner and 27 more | 95 min |
| May 15, 3:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 14 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2025Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2025Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Tennessee, 2025Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.