Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025
Mesoscale Discussion 921
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 21, 2025, 12:48 PM EDT for 12 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 21, 2025, 12:48 PM EDT (16:48 UTC)
- Expired
- May 21, 2025, 3:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Beaufort County, NC, Camden County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1289 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -54 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 890 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 70 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 8.2
The text
As transmitted.
512
ACUS11 KWNS 211649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211648
NCZ000-211915-
Mesoscale Discussion 0921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025
Areas affected...far eastern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 211648Z - 211915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may develop this afternoon over far
eastern North Carolina. Localized hail or wind may occur.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low over northeast
NC/southeast VA, with a cold front extending westward across
northern NC. South of this front, westerly winds and strong heating
are steepening boundary layer lapse rates, and removing convective
inhibition. Meanwhile, a narrow zone of mid 70s F dewpoints remains
in place over far eastern NC. Continued heating will yield over 2000
J/kg MLCAPE, beneath moderate westerlies aloft with around 50 kt
deep layer shear.
Although the westerly flow regime will eventually result in a drying
air mass, a window may exist in the near term for a few strong to
severe storms. Isolated marginal hail or a strong downburst cannot
be ruled out.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
LAT...LON 36217671 36417640 36457580 36337571 36037553 35587539
35237548 35037602 34697635 34577651 34627665 34937691
35447704 35837695 36217671
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 INSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 9:14 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Clay, Graham | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.