Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025
Mesoscale Discussion 721
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 6, 2025, 3:27 PM EDT for 26 counties in Florida. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 6, 2025, 3:27 PM EDT (19:27 UTC)
- Expired
- May 6, 2025, 6:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 26 counties
Brevard County, FL, Broward County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, Collier County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lake County, FL, Marion County, FL, Martin County, FL, Miami-Dade County, FL, Monroe County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 579 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -76 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 897 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
865
ACUS11 KWNS 061928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061927
FLZ000-062200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025
Areas affected...much of the Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061927Z - 062200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A sparse severe threat could develop this afternoon across
the FL Peninsula, where a stray damaging gust or instance of hail
are possible. However, the severe threat should be isolated at best,
precluding a WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has aided in thunderstorm
initiation across the FL Peninsula as temperatures have climbed over
90 F. Given at least upper 60s F dewpoints steep low-level lapse
rates, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE are in place south of a remnant frontal
boundary per 19Z mesoanalysis. Synoptic forcing is weak and vertical
wind shear is quite poor, casting doubt on any appreciable severe
threat. However, if a robust thunderstorm manages to develop and
persist, the strong buoyancy in place may support an instance of
hail or strong wind gusts, especially over southern parts of the
Florida Peninsula. Given the very isolated nature of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 25308083 26188173 27448225 29118239 29718163 29658121
28658070 27498028 26578015 25948017 25438037 25308083
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 INNearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.