Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 521

April 22, 202518 counties in Kansas; 12 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 22, 2025, 8:20 PM CDT for 18 counties in Kansas; 12 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 22, 2025, 8:20 PM CDT (01:20 UTC)
Expired
Apr 22, 2025, 10:15 PM CDT
In force
115 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
40%
All 30 counties

Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Chase County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Morris County, KS, Osage County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Platte County, MO

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 53 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2025-04-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 484 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2025-04-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
484 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-74 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2150 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
115 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

801 
ACUS11 KWNS 230120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230120 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 230120Z - 230315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening. Hail is the primary risk.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak, low amplitude
short-wave trough is located over the central Plains. This feature
is translating east and may provide some encouragement for isolated
convective development along/near a frontal zone that currently
extends from south of CNK-north of STJ. 00z sounding from TOP
exhibited very steep lapse rates, but notable capping was evident
near 2km, and surface-based convection may struggle to develop as
nocturnal cooling increases. However, large-scale ascent ahead of
the short wave may cool/moist mid levels such that an elevated
parcel is more likely to freely convect over the next few hours.
This activity could briefly attain severe levels, but
longevity/coverage may not warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Darrow/Mosier.. 04/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39129752 40389460 40389345 39709364 38139657 39129752 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 22, 7:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Harper, Kingman and 7 more91 min
Apr 23, 11:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Douglas and 15 more3 hr
Apr 23, 2:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Gove, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane and 6 more3 hr
Apr 23, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Ford, Gove, Graham and 24 more7 hr
Apr 23, 5:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Coffey, Doniphan, Douglas and 12 more88 min
Apr 23, 5:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Gove, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Hamilton and 16 more90 min
Apr 23, 4:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Worth92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.