Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025
Mesoscale Discussion 2221
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 24, 2025, 12:43 AM CST for 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 24, 2025, 12:43 AM CST (06:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 24, 2025, 3:15 AM CST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Irion County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Tom Green County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -136 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1437 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 77 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -26 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
The text
As transmitted.
058
ACUS11 KWNS 240644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240643
TXZ000-240915-
Mesoscale Discussion 2221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Areas affected...West-central and Southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 240643Z - 240915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may continue into the
overnight period across parts of west-central and southwest Texas.
Weather watch issuance will be possible.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows several small
thunderstorm clusters extending from north-central Texas
southwestward toward the Big Bend. The strongest thunderstorms are
located along a surface trough in southwest Texas along an axis of
moisture and instability. Within this airmass, the RAP shows MLCAPE
in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Storm coverage is expected to
continue as low-level flow and large-scale ascent both gradually
increase. The latest WSR-88D VWP at San Angelo has 0-6 km shear near
55 knots with some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This
environment may support rotation within the strongest storms, and
isolated supercells with large hail will be possible. RAP forecast
soundings at San Angelo have poor mid-level lapse rates suggesting
any hail threat should be marginal overnight.
..Broyles/Hart.. 11/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32100067 31330170 30840225 30410219 30320181 30310060
30579960 30939896 31539840 31919822 32249828 32409848
32559912 32499978 32100067
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 INSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 8:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baylor, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 16 more | 115 min |
| Nov 24, 10:20 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Bastrop, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado and 26 more | 85 min |
| Nov 24, 11:49 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Cherokee and 29 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 24, 1:07 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Cherokee, Freestone, Grimes, Hardin and 20 more | 83 min |
| Nov 24, 3:47 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Austin, Brazos, Cherokee, Grimes and 22 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.