Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 2113

September 21, 20254 counties in Oklahoma; 19 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 21, 2025, 5:47 PM CDT for 4 counties in Oklahoma; 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 21, 2025, 5:47 PM CDT (22:47 UTC)
Expired
Sep 21, 2025, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 616
All 23 counties

Bryan County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Archer County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Denton County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Jack County, TX, Jones County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2025-09-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 705 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2025-09-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -30 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
705 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-97 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1183 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
13 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

948 
ACUS11 KWNS 212248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212247 
OKZ000-TXZ000-220045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...Southern Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616...

Valid 212247Z - 220045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorm clusters will continue
propagating southeast across ww616. Wind and hail remain the primary
threats.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel
vort over northeast OK digging southeast toward northwest AR.
Southwestern influence of the associated trough appears to be aiding
multiple thunderstorm clusters across portions of north Texas into
extreme south central Oklahoma. Strong boundary-layer heating has
proven instrumental in destabilization near the frontal zone and
0-3km lapse rates are quite steep across north Texas. Latest MRMS
data suggests at least three robust updrafts are likely generating
large hail, one over eastern Young County, northern Denton County,
and southeast Grayson County. Northwesterly flow is gradually
strengthen over the next several hours, so this activity should
continue propagating southeast toward the I-20 corridor, including
the Metroplex. Hail and wind can be expected with the strongest
storms.

..Darrow.. 09/21/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33329997 34459622 33149621 32009997 33329997 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 20, 9:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Rogers, Tulsa and 2 more118 min
Sep 21, 3:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer and 9 more117 min
Sep 21, 3:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBryan, Carter, Jefferson, Johnston, Love, Marshall and 1 more119 min
Sep 21, 4:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Johnston, Love, Marshall4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.