Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025
Mesoscale Discussion 21
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 6, 2025, 10:17 AM EST for Hamilton County, Madison County, Florida; 12 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 6, 2025, 10:17 AM EST (15:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 6, 2025, 11:45 AM EST
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Hamilton County, FL, Madison County, FL, Atkinson County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Echols County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Ware County, GA
The radar
The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1198 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 113 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 1386 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 1336 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
871
ACUS11 KWNS 061517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061517
FLZ000-GAZ000-061645-
Mesoscale Discussion 0021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025
Areas affected...southern GA into far northern FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061517Z - 061645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may pose a risk for a
strong wind gust or brief tornado through early afternoon. Overall
risk is expected to remain low, and a watch is not currently
expected.
DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection is currently ongoing across
southern GA into north FL. Recently, occasional cyclonic shear has
been noted with cells over southern GA. The VWP from KVAX shows
enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs, supported by 1-2
km flow around 50-60 kt. Instability remains a limiting factor, with
regional 12z RAOBs showing poor lapse rates. Additionally,
boundary-layer moisture is rather unimpressive, with dewpoints
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Nevertheless, even weak
low-level instability could be sufficient in this high shear
environment to allow for a sporadic strong gust or perhaps a brief
tornado. Overall severe potential is expected to remain
limited/conditional through the afternoon.
..Leitman/Smith.. 01/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 31458385 31378228 30928192 30478202 30338247 30278308
30388370 30638396 30928406 31138407 31458385SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 12:23 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Gulf, Okaloosa, Walton, Washington | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.