Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025
Mesoscale Discussion 2021
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 29, 2025, 2:02 PM MDT for 9 counties in Colorado; 8 counties in New Mexico; Cimarron County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 29, 2025, 2:02 PM MDT (20:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 29, 2025, 3:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Colfax County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 206 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 389 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 12 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 500 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 73 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
999
ACUS11 KWNS 292003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292002
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-292130-
Mesoscale Discussion 2021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and northeast New
Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292002Z - 292130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue developing this afternoon over the higher-terrains and
adjacent plains. Eventually a few stronger clusters or supercells
may evolve with a risk for damaging gusts and some hail. A WW is
possible but uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Weak upslope flow and strong diurnal heating of a moist
air mass is support scattered thunderstorm development over portions
of the central Rockies this afternoon. Weak ascent from a glancing
shortwave trough and continued upslope should allow for additional
development over the next several hours. While low and mid-level
lapse rates aren't particularly steep, heating and upper 50s to mid
60s F dewpoints are supporting moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) over
the southern high Plains.
As convection intensifies this afternoon a 35-45 kt of bulk-shear
are in place to support storm organization. A few organized clusters
or supercell structures could evolve with an initial risk of
damaging gusts and some hail. CAM guidance has trended more
aggressive this afternoon, showing further storm development/upscale
growth into this evening, which could support one or more linear
clusters with a locally greater damaging wind threat.
While confidence in the convective evolution is low owing to
somewhat nebulous forcing for ascent, storm coverage is expected to
increase over the coming hours. A broadly favorable severe
environment with continued destabilization also suggests the severe
threat is likely increasing. Portions of southeastern CO, southwest
KS and northeast NM will be upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk at
20z. A WW is also being considered.
..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37380536 38750434 39050297 38270218 37070234 35300310
34350379 34250434 34540511 36330555 37380536
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 INSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 1:13 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kit Carson, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma | 2 hr |
| Aug 29, 3:01 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, Kiowa, Las Animas, Lincoln and 2 more | 7 hr |
| Aug 29, 5:10 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, Kiowa, Las Animas, Otero and 1 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.