Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 1721

July 19, 2025Sedgwick County, Colorado; Decatur County, Norton County, Rawlins County, Kansas; 31 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 19, 2025, 1:25 PM MDT for Sedgwick County, Colorado; Decatur County, Norton County, Rawlins County, Kansas; 31 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2025, 1:25 PM MDT (19:25 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2025, 3:30 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 35 counties

Sedgwick County, CO, Decatur County, KS, Norton County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Brown County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Custer County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Garden County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Grant County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, Loup County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Valley County, NE

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The text

As transmitted.

219 
ACUS11 KWNS 191926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191925 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central Nebraska...northwest
Kansas...and far northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 191925Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential
this afternoon. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple
tornadoes will all be possible. A watch will likely be issued for
parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery and radar data
show increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus and first signs of
convective initiation within a zone of differential heating along a
composite outflow-surface front in west-central NE. While weak
large-scale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on timing/evolution
of convection this afternoon, continued heating amid rich
boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) should support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along the outflow
boundary and possibly farther west over the High Plains. A
long/mostly straight hodograph (around 50-60 kt of effective shear)
and strongly unstable air mass should initially support splitting
supercells with a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts.
However, a strengthening low-level jet and increasing SRH will also
favor an increasing tornado risk into this evening. A watch will
likely be needed for parts of the area this afternoon.

..Weinman/Smith.. 07/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39610082 39830171 40310221 41250250 42210223 42670177
            42800112 42790013 42629943 42119899 41389893 40069926
            39649981 39610082 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 3:49 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Kit Carson	116 min
Jul 19, 2:42 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Doniphan	2 hr
Jul 19, 4:35 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Decatur, Graham, Jewell, Mitchell, Norton, Osborne and 6 more	5 hr
Jul 18, 6:19 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arthur, Blaine, Boyd, Brown, Holt, Hooker and 6 more	116 min
Jul 18, 7:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Antelope, Blaine, Boyd, Brown, Cedar, Custer and 16 more	7 hr
Jul 18, 8:01 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blaine, Brown, Loup	59 min
Jul 18, 10:30 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Antelope, Blaine, Boone, Boyd, Brown, Burt and 26 more	90 min
Jul 19, 2:16 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Arthur, Blaine, Brown, Cherry, Custer, Dawson and 19 more	6 hr
Jul 19, 4:18 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Antelope, Burt, Butler, Cedar, Colfax, Cuming and 14 more	117 min
Jul 19, 4:52 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Custer, Dawson, Frontier, Furnas, Garfield, Gosper and 7 more	83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2025 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2025 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2025 Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.