Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 1613

July 9, 20256 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 9, 2025, 12:49 PM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 9, 2025, 12:49 PM EDT (16:49 UTC)
Expired: Jul 9, 2025, 2:45 PM EDT
In force: 116 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...severe thunderstorm watch likely
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 94 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Perry County, PA, York County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497Jul 9, 2:00 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 647 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -65 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 836 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 4:43 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kent, New Castle, Sussex	2 hr
Jul 9, 5:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Kent, New Castle, Sussex	6 hr
Jul 9, 11:30 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Garrett	90 min
Jul 9, 2:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil and 10 more	8 hr
Jul 9, 3:49 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Montgomery, Prince George's, Saint Mary's and 1 more	116 min
Jul 9, 1:07 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Appomattox, Bedford, Campbell, Carroll, Charlotte, Floyd and 22 more	113 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2025 Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2025 Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2025 Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.