Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025
Mesoscale Discussion 1521
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 30, 2025, 4:52 AM CDT for 21 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 30, 2025, 4:52 AM CDT (09:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 30, 2025, 7:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 21 counties
Barton County, KS, Chase County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Geary County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Morris County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 924 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -230 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1123 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 73 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 84 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
123
ACUS11 KWNS 300952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300952
KSZ000-301215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 300952Z - 301215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated potential for severe wind gusts may continue
in parts of central and eastern Kansas over the next couple of
hours.
DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Topeka
shows a line of strong thunderstorms over north-central Kansas,
which is located along the western edge of a pocket of moderate
instability. Ahead of the line, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the
1000 to 2000 J/Kg range, with about 30 knots of flow at 850 mb. In
addition, a shortwave trough appears to be located from the Dakotas
into the central Plains. This should provide support for continued
convective development over the next few hours. The line recently
produced a 59 mph wind gust at Russell, Kansas. Although an isolated
wind-damage threat may continue with the more intense parts of the
line, it is uncertain the extent of any severe risk going forward
into the mid morning hours.
..Broyles/Smith.. 06/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39729679 39579637 39339593 39039571 38699572 38249601
37929671 37869775 38059870 38539883 39149841 39449791
39729729 39729679
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPHSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 8:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Cowley, Montgomery | 89 min |
| Jun 29, 11:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Decatur, Graham, Jewell, Mitchell, Norton, Osborne and 3 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 30, 1:58 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Graham, Jewell, Mitchell, Norton, Osborne and 6 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.