Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 1321

June 16, 2025Chisago County, Isanti County, Pine County, Minnesota; 10 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2025, 7:19 PM CDT for Chisago County, Isanti County, Pine County, Minnesota; 10 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 16, 2025, 7:19 PM CDT (00:19 UTC)
Expired
Jun 16, 2025, 8:45 PM CDT
In force
86 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 423

Counties Chisago County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Pine County, MN, Barron County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Polk County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2025-06-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2580 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2025-06-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 221 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2580 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-34 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
876 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
221 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
245 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.6
Supercell composite
13.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

838 
ACUS11 KWNS 170020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170019 
WIZ000-MNZ000-170145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Parts of far eastern Minnesota and northwestern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 423...

Valid 170019Z - 170145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 423 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may continue spreading eastward
across parts of northwestern Wisconsin. Convective trends are being
monitored for a possible extension of Tornado Watch 423.

DISCUSSION...Along the cold front, a broken band of thunderstorms is
tracking eastward at around 35-40 kt, with occasional bowing
structures evident. The primary concern with this activity continues
to be damaging wind gusts, though an embedded tornado cannot be
ruled out, given a 30-kt low-level jet and related enhanced
low-level shear. As these storms continue eastward toward the
eastern edge of Tornado Watch 423, they will encounter weaker
instability and gradually increasing nocturnal boundary-layer
stability. However, the focused and strengthening low-level jet may
compensate for this, and support a continued severe risk across
parts of northwestern WI. Convective trends are being monitored for
a possible eastward extension of Tornado Watch 423.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   46399232 46469191 46479127 46349065 45859028 45189056
            44879106 44999241 45379324 45599332 45969307 46399232 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.