Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 1237

June 9, 202517 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2025, 10:51 PM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 9, 2025, 10:51 PM CDT (03:51 UTC)
Expired
Jun 10, 2025, 12:15 AM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 404

Counties Andrews County, TX, Coke County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Martin County, TX, Menard County, TX, Midland County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2025-06-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3690 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2025-06-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -79 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3690 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1780 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.3
Supercell composite
-9.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

786 
ACUS11 KWNS 100351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100351 
TXZ000-NMZ000-100515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404...

Valid 100351Z - 100515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail should accompany ongoing supercells for at
least a few more hours. Propagation of the southern end of an MCS is
possible, which may also pose a severe gust threat.

DISCUSSION...Multiple mature, sustained supercells continue to
traverse the immediate cool side of a residual outflow boundary from
yesterday's storms, where 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of
effective bulk shear remain in place. MRMS mosaic MESH data
continues to show potentially very large hail falling with multiple
supercells, so severe hail potential should continue in the near
future.

The south end of a mature QLCS may be propagating southeastward
along the residual outflow boundary. If this convection can mature
further, a severe gust threat may manifest.

..Squitieri.. 06/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32680313 32850257 32790178 31510004 30729938 30399951
            30340015 30440063 30870123 31420199 31790259 32050298
            32290316 32680313 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 9, 8:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Castro, Cochran, Deaf Smith, Hockley, Lamb and 1 more85 min
Jun 9, 8:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Coke, Concho, Glasscock, Irion, Martin and 6 more97 min
Jun 9, 9:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBailey, Castro, Cochran, Crosby, Floyd, Garza and 9 more5 hr
Jun 9, 10:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Castro, Cochran, Crosby, Floyd, Garza and 9 more89 min
Jun 10, 2:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrane, Ector, Loving, Upton, Ward, Winkler96 min
Jun 10, 12:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Crane, Culberson, Ector, Jeff Davis, Loving and 6 more87 min
Jun 10, 1:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Culberson, Dawson and 18 more7 hr
Jun 10, 5:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKinney, Terrell, Val Verde57 min
Jun 10, 5:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDimmit, Edwards, Frio, Kinney, Maverick, Medina and 4 more8 hr
Jun 10, 6:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Crane, Ector, Gaines, Glasscock, Martin and 3 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.