Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 1221

June 9, 2025Hamilton County, Madison County, Nassau County, Florida; 31 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2025, 1:20 PM EDT for Hamilton County, Madison County, Nassau County, Florida; 31 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 9, 2025, 1:20 PM EDT (17:20 UTC)
Expired
Jun 9, 2025, 3:15 PM EDT
In force
115 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 34 counties

Hamilton County, FL, Madison County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Camden County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Echols County, GA, Evans County, GA, Glynn County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Ware County, GA, Wayne County, GA

The radar

The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2025-06-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1443 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2025-06-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 98 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1443 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-35 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
863 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

202 
ACUS11 KWNS 091721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091720 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-091915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of north FL and southeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091720Z - 091915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts may occur this afternoon with
thunderstorm activity developing east/northeast across the region.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms across southern GA has
occasionally shown near-severe level velocity signatures on radar of
the past 30 minutes, and a gust to 55 mph was noted in Lowndes
County GA. This activity is occurring within a moderately unstable
but weakly sheared environment. Given weak shear, thunderstorms will
likely remain somewhat disorganized. However, steep low-level lapse
rates and PW values near 2 inches may support water-loaded
downdrafts and sporadic strong downburst winds as convection
develops east/northeast through the afternoon. Overall severe
potential is expected to remain limited and a watch is not
anticipated at this time.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31158401 31818316 32358170 32318115 31958085 31598093
            31098125 30578174 30288310 30378349 30748407 31158401 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 9, 1:53 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHolmes2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.