Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 1021

May 28, 202510 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2025, 3:37 AM CDT for 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2025, 3:37 AM CDT (08:37 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2025, 5:00 AM CDT
In force: 83 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Bandera County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Medina County, TX, Wilson County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 236 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1475 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -116 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1011 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 40 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

500 
ACUS11 KWNS 280837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280837 
TXZ000-281000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 280837Z - 281000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong gusts and hail are possible with a cluster of
strong storms moving east over the central TX.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has intensified to the west of the
I-35 corridor/greater San Antonio area early this morning. This
activity is occurring within a moderately unstable airmass amid 40
kt effective shear magnitudes. Radar trends have shows some
indication of strong outflow gusts associated with this cluster,
though KERV only gusted to around 27kt as the core of these stronger
velocity signatures passed just south of the observation site.
Nevertheless, some strong gusts and perhaps hail will be possible as
the cluster approached the I-35 corridor over the next hour or so.
Given a lack of stronger forcing, and the absence of a low-level
jet, it is unclear how long this cluster may maintain its current
intensity. Overall, severe potential should remain limited and a
watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 05/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON   30219904 30139789 29799747 29529741 29259771 29149822
            29249874 29349920 29549939 30219904 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 27, 7:41 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Loving, Midland and 8 more	64 min
May 27, 9:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Coke, Concho, Crane, Crockett, Ector and 16 more	2 hr
May 27, 11:26 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brooks, Dimmit, Duval, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Kleberg and 4 more	2 hr
May 27, 11:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brooks, Dimmit, Duval, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Kleberg and 4 more	2 hr
May 28, 12:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bee, Brooks, Cameron, Dimmit, Duval, Hidalgo and 16 more	7 hr
May 28, 12:20 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Blanco, Brown, Burnet, Callahan, Coleman and 21 more	115 min
May 28, 12:53 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dallam, Sherman	3 hr
May 28, 2:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Dallam, Hartley, Moore, Sherman	7 hr
May 28, 2:15 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Roberts	8 hr
May 28, 2:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 35 more	7 hr
May 28, 3:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, Presidio, Reeves, Ward	97 min
May 28, 3:58 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Callahan, Coleman and 20 more	92 min
May 28, 6:26 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Blanco, Brown, Burnet, Coleman, Concho and 9 more	94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2025 Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.