Wind Advisory 3, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
148 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong winds expected on Friday, along with blowing dust.

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions expected on Friday.
  Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

The main concern in the short term period continues to be a very
strong wind event that is expected to develop tomorrow.

A potent upper level trough will track east across the southern
Rockies tonight and into the southern Plains tomorrow. Associated
strong surface low will rapidly develop over Kansas tomorrow
morning. The tightening pressure gradient associated with this
low, coupled with downward momentum transfer of very high winds
aloft will result in very windy conditions areawide tomorrow. The
strongest winds are expected from the Concho Valley and Heartland
north into the Big Country, where sustained westerly surface
winds of 35 to 45 mph is expected, along with gusts of 50 to 60
mph. A High wind Warning will be issued for this area from mid
morning tomorrow through the afternoon hours. These strong winds
may result in isolated power outages, loose and unsecured objects
blown around and difficult driving on north-south roadways,
especially for high profiel vehicles. In addition to the winds
blowing dust is likely, which may result in low visibilities and
hazardous driving conditions. Farther south, winds will be a bit
weaker, but strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory for the
Northwest Hill Country and Northern Edwards Plateau counties.

In addition to the strong winds, critical to extreme fire weather
conditions will develop tomorrow. See the Fire Weather discussion
below for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

The primary concerns for the long term forecast remain the threat
of a strong wind event on Friday, coinciding with very dry
conditions and increasing concerns for Critical Fire Weather
conditions. This event will all take shape as a strong upper-level
low tracks across the Texas panhandle overnight Thursday into
Friday, along with deepening low pressure at the surface and a
tightening pressure gradient over West Central Texas. This will
result in strong westerly flow aloft and mix down to the surface
ranging from 25-45 mph with the potential for higher gusts. There
is also a high probability (greater than 70%) of wind gusts
exceeding 50 mph across the Big Country and Concho Valley.
Relative Humidity values in the single digits to lower teens are
expected during the day on Friday, with very little recovery
expected overnight (in the low to mid 30 percent range). A Fire
Weather Watch and High Wind Watch remain in affect for Friday
morning through Friday afternoon for aforementioned Critical Fire
Weather conditions and strong gusty winds.

The upper-level trough will sweep across West Central Texas
Saturday and exit the region by Sunday afternoon. Winds are not
expected to be as strong as what is expected on Friday, but breezy
west to northwesterly winds are expected during the afternoon
hours on Saturday. Afternoon highs will range in the low 70s to
low 80s on Friday, then fall into the mid 60s to low 70s on
Saturday. A warming trend into the 70s is expected on Sunday,
which will continue into the first half of next week with high
temperatures in the 80s. The warmer and breezy conditions for the
the early part of next week could bring another round of elevated
to near critical fire weather concerns to West Central Texas,
especially since precipitation chances remain very low through the
long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. Expect light winds this afternoon and evening, then winds
increase after 06Z and become gusty as a strong low level jet
develops. Very strong winds will develop across the terminals by
mid to late morning, with the highest gusts at KSJT and KABI.
Expect wind gusts to 40 knots at both of these terminals towards
the end of the forecast period, with gusts 50 to possibly 60
knots just beyond the forecast period for tomorrow afternoon.
Southern terminals will see weaker winds, with gusts tomorrow 25
to 35 knots late morning, increasing to around 40 knots in the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement was issued for all of West Central
Texas today. Minimum RH values will drop to 8 to 15 percent, while
20 foot west to southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 mph, with
higher gusts. The main fire weather concern is the expected critical
to extremely critical fire weather conditions across the area on
Friday. RH values are only forecast to recover to 25 to 40 percent
for most of the area overnight. Minimum RH values will then drop to
5 to 10 percent for most of the area on Friday, while 20 foot west
winds increase to 25 to 40 mph, with higher gusts. A Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect on Friday from 11 AM through 9 PM. RH values
Saturday morning are forecast to recover to 30 to 35 percent.

On Saturday, minimum RH values will drop to 15 to 20 percent, while
20 foot west winds increase to 15 to 25 mph. This will result in
another day of near critical to critical fire weather conditions. A
Red Flag Warning eventually be needed on Saturday, especially for
the southern half of the area. An RFD may also be needed for the
northern half of the area. Expect elevated to critical fire weather
conditions to continue into the first part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     59  73  50  67 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  58  74  49  67 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    58  81  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   56  76  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  57  71  47  65 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       56  74  48  66 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       62  76  52  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-
Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24