Tornado Warning 27, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
547 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous severe weather possible across portions of West
  Central Texas tonight, with very large hail and hurricane force
  winds expected with a few of the storms.

- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated for much of next week,
  with heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

We're looking at a dangerous weather set up this evening for much of
north Texas. There will be two potential round of storms with
different primary hazards. One round is expected to form off of the
dryline to our west before moving east into our area. The storm mode
with this activity will likely be supercellular, with very large
hail as the main hazard and secondary hazards of damaging winds and
possibly a tornado. These storms are expected to be more isolated to
scattered in nature, with the highest likelihood of impacting
portions of the Concho Valley, southern Big Country, and Crockett
County. The second round of storms is expected to form to our
northwest before they congeal into a line and move southeastward.
These storms look to impact the northern Big Country starting around
7 PM. The primary hazard with this line of storms will be very
strong and damaging winds, with secondary hazards of very large hail
and potentially embedded tornadoes. As this line moves through, some
areas within bowing segments could see winds in excess of 75 mph.
Models keep this line primarily in the Big Country for our area,
with the highest chance of seeing damaging winds in Haskell,
Throckmorton, and Shackelford counties. We also have a Flood Watch
out for Haskell and Throckmorton counties tonight, as previous
rainfall combined with additional heavy rainfall tonight could lead
to flash flooding.

The line should move out to the east by midnight, but scattered
storms could linger behind it overnight. A front is expected to move
in from the north, but the timing and positioning of this boundary
varies between models. Isolated to scattered storms are expected to
form near the front in the morning. The best chance for seeing these
storms will be in the Big Country and Heartland. Additional isolated
storms could form off to our west in the late afternoon, moving into
our western counties in the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Our area will be under west-northwest flow aloft Monday night and
Tuesday. May have an embedded weak shortwave move over the area
Monday night, and this is when we have higher rain chances. Leftover
outflow boundaries may also be foci for convective development.
Locally heavy rain is possible. With increased cloud cover,
temperatures Tuesday should be confined to the mid to upper 80s for
much of the area.

The models have been generally consistent in bringing a stronger
shortwave trough into West Texas Tuesday night, and across our area
Wednesday and Wednesday night. With moist air in place and lift with
the approaching trough, a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain are anticipated Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. Flooding/flash flooding looks to be more of a concern in this
time frame, especially in areas where repeated rainfall occurs.
The location of outflow boundaries may also concentrate where
heavier rain occurs. With modest instability and vertical shear,
will have to monitor for the potential of some strong to severe
storms. Temperatures will remain cooler and should be limited to
highs 80-85 degrees for most of our area.

The aforementioned more prominent shortwave trough will be slow-
moving, with the trough axis not shifting east of our area until
Thursday evening. The main area of showers and thunderstorms should
be over the eastern half of our area Thursday. Temperatures will
remain below normal Thursday with highs ranging from the lower 80s
in our eastern counties, to upper 80s west.

Friday into the weekend looks more uncertain with the details, but
the overall trend should be a warming trend, with low rain chances
in mainly some of our eastern counties. One possible scenario which
a couple of medium range models point to is for the aforementioned
upper trough (slowly exiting our area Thursday evening) to make
sluggish progress in central to eastern Texas. This would be the
result of an upper ridge progged to build over New Mexico, while an
upper ridge also builds over the southeastern CONUS. This would set
up northerly flow aloft over our area, with the possibility of
embedded disturbances moving south across the area. This scenario
would suggest that capping may be stronger in our western counties
and points west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Storms are starting to develop around our forecast area. A line of
storms is expected to move into KABI from the north around 02Z.
With this line, we could see very strong and gusty winds.
Additional storms could move into the KSJT area from the west, but
confidence is lower in the location of these storms. Winds will
turn and become gusty as outflow from the storms moves south
overnight. Low clouds could develop over the area early tomorrow
morning, but confidence is low on exact cloud heights. Right now,
we've kept them above MVFR, but there is a chance for MVFR for a
few hours tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  69  81  68 /  20  50  30  60
San Angelo  99  71  88  67 /   0  20  20  50
Junction    98  71  94  69 /   0   0  20  50
Brownwood   97  70  85  68 /  10  40  40  70
Sweetwater 100  67  81  67 /  30  40  30  60
Ozona       99  72  92  70 /  10  10  20  40
Brady       96  69  89  67 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for Haskell-Throckmorton.

&&

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...AP