Tornado Warning 25, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
552 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled pattern continues through tonight, with another round
  of strong to severe thunderstorms possible during the evening
  and overnight hours.

- Expect warmer temperatures and a few rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms this weekend and next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Our short range models (HRRR etc.) are showing thunderstorms
developing off to the northwest of our area. This initial activity
will be more isolated in nature as it moves into the Big Country
around 7 PM this evening. This initial activity will pose the
highest risk for large hail (up to 2" diameter) and tornado
potential of the evening. However, damaging winds and excessive
rainfall will also be of concern. We expect this activity to move
southeast across the I-20 corridor and eventually merge into a
line of thunderstorms, which will increase the damaging wind
potential and intensity (65-80 MPH winds). The line of
thunderstorms should be across the Concho Valley by around 9 PM,
and the I-10 corridor around midnight approximately.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

On Saturday, upper level ridging is expected to increase over our
area, sandwiched between a retrograding upper low to our west,
and advancing trough to our east. Although there will still be a
20% to 30% chance for thunderstorms for areas south of a Sterling
City to Brownwood line Saturday, this pattern will generally lead
to drier and warmer weather this weekend.

As we move into the first half of next week, and upper level
trough is expected to move east/northeast across the Four Corners
region. This will increase precipitation chances early next week.
Although, the details are unclear at this time, since we are in
the late May/early June timeframe, some of the storms could be
strong to severe. We'll be keeping a close eye on this potential.
Medium range model guidance shows passing shortwaves at varying
strengths and speeds, so we will have generally 20% to 30% chances
for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will
generally trend upward, with highs mainly in the mid/upper 90s
from Sunday through the end of the week, but a weak cold front may
cool temperatures off temporarily during the second half of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Storms rapidly developing and moving eastward this evening should
affect terminals from northwest to southeast generally for the
first 6 to 9 hours of this TAF period. Large hail and powerful
wind gusts could occur with any cells. MVFR to IFR ceilings
anticipated behind the storms and should persist through most of
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  77  63  87 /  70  20  10  10
San Angelo  65  78  63  86 /  50  40  10  20
Junction    66  81  63  84 /  50  50  20  30
Brownwood   64  78  63  85 /  50  30  10  10
Sweetwater  63  78  64  88 /  60  20  10  10
Ozona       66  79  65  84 /  40  50  20  30
Brady       66  78  64  83 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SK