Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe storms this evening through Saturday
  night.

- Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
  Saturday night.

- Dry weather expected early next week, with rain chances
  returning by mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...Slight risk of Severe storms tonight in the Big Country/Concho
Valley and slight risk Saturday across all of West Central Texas...

A dryline will move along an Ozona to San Angelo to Abilene line
this evening. Short range models indicate scattered thunderstorms
developing mainly after 7 PM from the Northern Concho Valley
(Sterling City/Robert Lee) north to Sweetwater and Roby, then moving
northeast to Abilene, Haskell and Throckmorton as an upper
disturbance moves over. Considerable mid and upper level cloudiness
may limit heating this afternoon, but moisture and instability had
returned with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s, along with
deep layer shear (0-6KM bulk shear was greater than 50 KTS). Large
hail and damaging winds will be possible if storms develop, along
with hail 2-3 inch diameter. SPC also outlined a 2 percent (low
potential) for a tornado. A second band of scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop along the dryline toward/after midnight
and move eastward overnight across West Central Texas into Saturday
morning, as another disturbance moves aloft.

A slight risk of severe storms expands across all of West Central
Texas Saturday. While there may be scattered storms in the morning,
with heating, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the
afternoon. A weak cold front/dry line triple point may develop in
the NW Concho Valley/western Big Country and focus development in
the afternoon, with a stronger cold front/pacific cold front moving
through later in the night. Deep layer shear and strong instability
will again be available for severe storm development. Again hail 2
to 3 inch diameter possible. SPC increases the tornado potential to
5 percent (more of a medium potential) Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Thunderstorm chances will persist and are expected to increase
in coverage across the area Saturday evening and overnight, as
large-scale ascent increases with the upper trough entering west
Texas. Strong to severe storms should be ongoing early Saturday
evening and focused along and just north of a surface cold front
that will be draped across the area. Latest CAMs show the front
as far south as the northern Concho Valley by early evening, with
most of the convection along and north of the front across the
Big Country. Elevated storms north of the boundary will be
capable of producing large to very large hail due to steep lapse
rates. Although CAMs show most of the evening activity along and
north of the front, any storms that develop in the warm sector
south of the front and east of a developing dryline to our
southwest will likely be severe, with large to very large hail
possible. In addition, an isolated tornado is also possible,
especially with any storms that are able to latch onto the front.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage during
the late evening and overnight hours Saturday, as the upper
trough continues east and the cold front shifts south. Storms are
expected to become more linear by this time and pose both a hail
and wind threat as the line moves east across the area. In
addition to the severe potential, heavy rainfall is possible
during the evening and overnight hours, which may lead to some
flooding concerns. The greatest flooding threat will be across the
Big Country and northern Heartland counties where the greater
coverage of storms is expected. Showers and storms are expected to
be east of the area by daybreak Easter morning, with decreasing
clouds and pleasant temperatures by afternoon, with highs in the
70s.

Dry and pleasant weather is expected on Monday, with highs mainly
in the lower 80s. Unsettled weather returns by mid to late week,
as southwest flow aloft develops and a series of disturbances
moves across the area. Rain chances remain in the forecast Tuesday
night through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next few hours
and could continue through at least 12Z Saturday. Any storm that
moves through a terminal area will be short-lived but could
produce large hail and strong wind shear. Lower ceilings possible
by morning, especially if there are lingering showers. Otherwise,
gusty winds after 18Z Saturday with low to medium chances for more
thunderstorms through 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  65  79  53 /  10  50  80 100
San Angelo  90  63  85  51 /  10  60  60  90
Junction    90  63  85  53 /  10  70  50  90
Brownwood   89  63  82  54 /  10  70  80 100
Sweetwater  89  64  78  52 /  10  40  70  90
Ozona       89  63  83  51 /  10  60  40  90
Brady       88  64  82  55 /  10  70  60  90

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
122 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

TXZ066-127-139-190645-
Runnels TX-Coleman TX-Taylor TX-
122 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN COLEMAN...SOUTH
CENTRAL TAYLOR AND RUNNELS COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM CDT...

At 122 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hatchel, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winters, Lawn, Norton, Glen Cove, Benoit, Ovalo, Ballinger, Bradshaw,
Hatchel, Maverick, Crews, Goldsboro, Lake Winters Lake, Ballinger
Lake, Novice, Talpa, Rowena, and Hords Creek Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 10009 3184 10024 3221 9981 3186 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 235DEG 83KT 3186 10001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
128 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     Hail             3 SSE Tankersley        31.31N 100.61W
04/19/2025  E1.25 Inch       Tom Green          TX   Trained Spotter

&&

SN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
145 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     Hail             4 SW San Angelo         31.40N 100.50W
04/19/2025  E1.00 Inch       Tom Green          TX   Public

            Public reported Quarter size hail on Twin
            Mountain Dr in San Angelo at 1:40 AM via
            Facebook.

&&

PO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
156 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

TXZ072-076>078-190800-
Schleicher TX-Tom Green TX-Crockett TX-Sutton TX-
156 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SCHLEICHER...
SOUTHEASTERN TOM GREEN...EAST CENTRAL CROCKETT AND NORTHERN SUTTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 153 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a broken line of strong
thunderstorms from north south central Tom Green County to far
eastern Crockett County, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
The Intersection Of Ranch Road 1828 And Ranch Road 915, The
Intersection Of Us-
190 And Ranch Road 1828, Christoval, Eldorado, Vancourt, Us-
277 Near The Sutton-
Schleicher County Line, Adams, The Intersection Of Ranch Road 2596
And Ranch Road 864, I-10 Near The Crockett-
Sutton County Line, The Intersection Of I-
10 And Ranch Road 1989, The Intersection Of Us-
190 And Ranch Road 2084, and Sonora.

This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 372 and 407.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 10110 3109 10073 3109 10069 3113 10069
      3125 10058 3136 10012 3063 10012 3046 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 237DEG 30KT 3068 10096

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

sn

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