Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
546 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch in effect today until 7 PM for central,
  eastern and southeastern parts of the area.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms anticipated this
  morning through the afternoon, some with locally heavy rainfall.

- Warmer temperatures by the latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The WV satellite imagery early this morning is showing a slow
moving/weak disturbance just southeast of the Northwest Hill
Country slowly drifting northwest. Also, PW axis (2 to 2.2 inches)
is located along the I-35 corridor over central and south Texas.
Across our area, PW values were greater than 1.5 inches east of a
Sweetwater to Mertzon to Ozona line. Also, elevated
instability(1500 to 2500 J/kg)covered much of our area. Current
radar trends only showing a few showers at this time.

Conditions( due to tropical thermodynamics/weak steering flow
aloft/backbuilding convection) are favorable for another flash flood
event at least locally today. It may start as early as 08Z across
the San Saba, Mason and Kimble counties. The weak disturbance will
drift west and combine with moderate elevated instability this
morning to fire a few thunderstorms. The high end PW values
environment will mean rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour
with any slow moving thunderstorms, before 12Z. Again, there is a
lot uncertainty on location of storms and even if they develop,
and will watch radar trends closely. There is current MPD out from
WPC for the above mention counties.

For this afternoon, more diurnal showers and thunderstorms will
develop mainly south of a Sterling City to Brownwood line with
coverage being scattered to numerous, per Hi-Res models. The main
hazards will be flash flooding due to very high rainfall rates,
dangerous lightning and gusty winds. Will keep the Flood Watch
going until 7 PM this evening for the Heartland, Northwest Hill
Country, eastern 2/3 of the Concho Valley and Schleicher County.
Please keep up with the latest weather information and have many
ways to receive warnings. looks like mainly quiet weather tonight,
besides a few showers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

An upper level high will be centered over Arizona/New Mexico Tuesday
and Wednesday, and our area will be on its eastern periphery. Our
northern and eastern counties will have a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon as a weak
disturbance rotates around the east side of the high. Some of our
eastern and southeastern counties have a low chance (20-30 percent)
for showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. With precipitable water
values forecast to be 1.5 to 1.7 inches, brief heavy rain will be
possible with any showers/storms. Daily highs Tuesday and Wednesday
are expected to remain below normal for early July and mostly in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

By late week the upper high is progged to retrograde over the Desert
Southwest, and our area will be under a weakness in the height field
aloft. With a gradual increase in 850mb temperatures, the daily
highs will trend upward as well and highs will be mostly in the
lower to mid 90s Thursday and Friday. A shear axis aloft is
forecast to be over our area next weekend. A few showers and
storms will be possible over portions of the Big Country Saturday,
and over our eastern counties Sunday. Little change in
temperatures is indicated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Expect a few hours of MVFR/IFR ceilings at most of the terminals
this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions this afternoon and
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this morning
and afternoon and have PROB30 groups for the terminals, besides
KABI. In addition, a few storms may move into the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country after 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  73  91  73 /  40   0  20  10
San Angelo  86  72  90  72 /  50   0  10  10
Junction    86  70  89  70 /  60  10  10  10
Brownwood   84  72  89  71 /  60  10  10  10
Sweetwater  90  73  92  73 /  20   0  10  10
Ozona       86  71  89  71 /  40   0   0   0
Brady       82  70  87  70 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Tom
Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...21