Flash Flood Warning 113, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
457 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight.

- Rain chances continue through tonight, before decreasing
  Friday. There's a risk for excessive rainfall and flooding.

- There is a high chance (90%+) of at least 2 inches of rainfall
  across the Heartland and Hill Country by this afternoon, with a
  small chance of at least 1 inch of rain (less than 30%) for
  areas from Abilene to San Angelo.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through tonight)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through
tonight, with the primary impacts being potential flooding due to
heavy rainfall, strong outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and a
small chance for large hail. Copious amounts of low-level moisture
remain across the area, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values
nearing the 1.75 inch range which is well above average for this
time of year. Models continue to show areas of heavy rainfall
across portions of the northwestern Hill Country, Edwards Plateau,
and southern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland, as a
series of shortwave disturbances track across the area. With the
heavy rainfall we are seeing overnight and models are indicating
we should see through the rest of the day today, the Flood Watch
will remain in effect through tonight.

There remains some uncertainty with regards to extent and exact
amounts, but HREF probabilities are now showing a high chance
(90%+) of greater than 2 inches of rain over the next 24 hours
across the NW Hill Country around Junction, with point totals in
some models creeping above 8 inches in a few instances. Amounts
just to the south are even higher and are reaching 10+ inches (and
a reminder that the South LLano River flows north into Kimble
County from Kerr and Edwards Counties). Soils are dry but this is
the Hill Country where topsoil is shallow and runoff occurs very
quickly. That much rain in a short amount of time could cause
problems despite the recent dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Quieter weather is expected Friday into Saturday as the system
bringing the current precipitation moves off to the northeast and
we fall under southwest flow aloft. Highs will generally range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with light west winds on Friday
becoming east to southeasterly Saturday in response to surface
pressure falls to our west.

By Saturday, the next upper level system is expected to be over
the northern Baja Peninsula while beginning to turn to the
northeast into the Desert Southwest. Surface pressure falls to our
west in response to the approach of the upper system will quickly
draw low level Gulf moisture back into the area Saturday into
Sunday. And while we could see a few showers and isolated storms
Saturday afternoon south of Interstate 20, shortwave ridging over
west central Texas will likely limit coverage of any
precipitation.

On Sunday, the upper level low will move into the Four Corners
region. Similar to the current system, shortwaves rotating around
the low in combination with height falls aloft will increase lift
Sunday into Sunday night. At the surface, a Pacific cold front
will move into the area providing a focus for convection as well.
All this points to increasing confidence in another round of
showers and thunderstorms for west central Texas Sunday into
Sunday night. The main concern will again be locally heavy
rainfall and flooding, especially after the current event drops
and inch-plus of rainfall over most of the area through tomorrow
night. As mentioned in the previous AFD, there is a Marginal to
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for our region. Similar to this
event, severe storms are also a concern, but secondary to heavy
rain at this time. Most of the precipitation will be out of the
area by early Monday afternoon.

Expect dry weather, mostly clear skies, and cooler temperatures
through the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 429 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The second round of thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall has
started to take shape across portions of the Concho Valley and
Northern Edwards Plateau this morning, and is expected to become
more widespread through this afternoon. Expect MVFR to IFR
conditions under these showers and thunderstorms, through out the
day today across all terminals. Most showers and thunderstorms
will form along a KABI to KSJT to KSOA line and slowly track
eastward through KBBD and KJCT by later this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to diminish tonight, but MVFR ceilings
are likely again tonight into Friday morning given the ample low
level moisture and calm winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  52  74  45 /  90  60   0   0
San Angelo  70  50  73  43 /  90  50   0   0
Junction    73  54  75  47 / 100  70  20  10
Brownwood   71  54  75  44 / 100  80  10   0
Sweetwater  71  50  72  47 /  90  40   0   0
Ozona       71  51  73  46 /  90  40   0   0
Brady       70  56  73  48 / 100  80  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Brown-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Sutton.

&&

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...TP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
747 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

TXZ073-154-168>170-201415-
Mason TX-Menard TX-Kimble TX-McCulloch TX-Concho TX-
747 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN KIMBLE...MCCULLOCH...
CENTRAL MENARD...NORTHWESTERN MASON AND SOUTHEASTERN CONCHO COUNTIES
THROUGH 815 AM CST...

At 746 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 1773, or 7 miles south of Menard, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brady, Menard, Melvin, Brady Lake, Lohn, Rochelle, Pear Valley, Calf
Creek, Hext, The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 1773, The Intersection Of Us-
190 And Ranch Road 1311, Us-190 Near The Menard-
Mcculloch County Line, Us-83 Near The Kimble-
Menard County Line, and The Intersection Of Us-83 And Highway 29.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 9995 3139 9948 3117 9909 3111 9909
      3066 9977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1346Z 221DEG 40KT 3081 9980

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
831 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Flash Flood      Menard                  30.92N 99.79W
11/20/2025                   Menard             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Street flooding was reported in Menard. In
            addition, flooding was reported in the
            Harris Hollow section of Menard.

&&

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1025 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

TXZ139-140-154-155-201715-
Coleman TX-McCulloch TX-Brown TX-San Saba TX-
1025 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BROWN...SOUTHEASTERN
COLEMAN...NORTHEASTERN MCCULLOCH AND NORTHWESTERN SAN SABA COUNTIES
THROUGH 1115 AM CST...

At 1025 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Placid, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brownwood, Early, Bangs, Elm Grove, Winchell, Zephyr, Brookesmith,
Lake Brownwood State Park, Camp Bowie, Placid, Mercury, Owens,
Milburn, and Indian Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 9875 3161 9878 3149 9899 3147 9900
      3145 9897 3144 9896 3146 9894 3144 9893
      3144 9891 3121 9925 3133 9941 3192 9899
      3170 9868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 221DEG 49KT 3134 9927

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH