Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
533 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

Before I jump into the forecast for today, I should first talk
about what is happening early this morning. A cold front is
currently analyzed to be just to the south of the I-30 corridor as
of 08/08z. Well out ahead of the front, fog is invading from the
south and has reached the I-20 corridor. While visibility has
dropped at times to below a mile, it has not been persistant
enough to issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this time but will
continue to monitor it as the night progresses. Another reason is
that the approaching cold front will quickly limit any fog
potential behind the front. That being said, use caution if you
are out driving this morning along and south of I-20 as there
could be some areas of patchy fog.

The other thing we are watching this morning is the development of
thunderstorms west of the DFW metroplex near Abilene.
Additionally, our radar has been picking up on some light returns
across deep east Texas, but nothing significant at this time. The
aforementioned cold front will continue its slow southward track
through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon hours,
eventually clearing the area to the south later this evening. At
the same time, an upper-level low will move out of New Mexico and
into western Texas today. As it does so, thunderstorm activity
will increase and become more widespread across our area later
this morning and into the afternoon hours. While the primary
threat with thunderstorms today will be marginally severe hail,
should any of the storms become surface based this afternoon, we
could see the potential for severe wind gusts and a brief tornado
or two possible. Thunderstorm chances begin to decrease as we move
into tonight, although morning model runs are showing some
lingering showers across our northern zones well into Sunday
morning before clearing the area to the east by Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures today will be seasonable for most of the region, with
some below normal temperatures across our northern zones. Highs
will range from the mid 50s across the north to the upper 60s
across our southern zones. In the wake of the passing cold front,
low temperatures tonight will dip back into the 40s areawide. The
cold front will be felt more widely on Sunday, with afternoon
highs only maxing out in the lower to mid 50s, which is around 10
to 15 degrees below seasonable normals. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 209 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

By Sunday night and into Monday morning the upper-level low will
start pushing east of the area and ridging will begin to take
control of our region from the west. As such, Monday will be the
start of a warming trend that will continue into the middle of the
week. In addition to the warming temperatures, high pressure will
bring dry conditions from the start of the week through at least
the middle of the week. By Wednesday afternoon, another upper-
level trough will be moving through the central CONUS, bringing
another brief period of showers and thunderstorms for portions of
the area Wednesday afternoon/evening into early Wednesday night.

From here, we have another short stint of dry weather as weak high
pressure moves across the region through Thursday night, with yet
again another trough moving across the central CONUS by Friday,
bringing with it yet again another chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to rise towards the end
of the week, reaching into the 80s by Thursday and Friday across
much of the region. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025

Light reflectivity returns are currently being analyzed along and
south of a cold front pushing through the airspace this morning.
To the west, robust TSRA development has prevailed south of the
DFW metro terminals, with some of this pushing east along the
boundary. Hi-res CAM guidance this morning suggests one or two of
these stronger thunderstorms will move into the airspace just
after 12z, potentially impacting some of the I-20 terminals prior
to widespread SHRA/TSRA coverage closer to 18z. Buying that the
hi-res is on track, much of this will continue through 00z. That
being said, SHRA and TSRA is advertised through this period before
a return to VCSH and lowering ceilings as the low clouds and
further BR evolution prevails through the end of the period.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

Spotter activation is not expected until Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  47  55  40 /  70  80  20  10
MLU  67  49  55  41 /  40  80  20  10
DEQ  57  40  53  33 /  70  90  40  10
TXK  60  44  53  37 /  70  80  30  10
ELD  63  43  51  36 /  60  80  30  10
TYR  60  45  54  38 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  62  45  55  37 /  70  60  10   0
LFK  68  48  56  40 /  70  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...53