Severe Thunderstorm Warning 461, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
141 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

 - Rain returns to the area today ahead and along a cold front.
   Can't rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with
   this system.

 - A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10PM tonight through 7PM
   Wednesday. Expect gusty winds near 20 mph, with gusts up to 35
   mph.

 - The coolest airmass of the Fall season will move into the
   region behind the front, with dry and cool conditions
   continuing through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

A long-wave trough continues to dive southward across the Plains,
driving a cold front towards our region. Ahead of the front, a weak
short-wave disturbance has kicked off light rain showers across
our northern zones throughout the morning hours today. That
front is now located just east of the DFW metro area, and should
move into our forecast zones over the next hour or two. Short-term
progs continue to suggest a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms will rapidly develop just ahead of the front once in
moves into our area. These individual cells within the broken line
are expected to intensify across portions of East Texas as it they
get closer to the Louisiana border. We should see ML-CAPE values
approaching 2000 J/kg across portions of East Texas and adjacent
North & Central Louisiana, along with decent mid-level lapse
rates and good shear profiles. This has prompted The Storm
Prediction Center to increase to a Slight Risk for the previously
mentioned areas this afternoon. The primary risk will be large
hail, and possibly a tornado or two.

Behind the front, strong northwesterly winds will bring in our
coldest airmass of the Fall season. Highs on Wednesday will range
from the upper 50s in our northern zones, to the mid 60s in our
southern areas. A Wind Advisory has been issued areawide from 10PM
tonight through 7PM Wednesday, as we will see sustained northwesterly
winds near 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph. There is a chance
that the extreme northern sections of our SE Oklahoma and
Southwest Arkansas zones could see some light rain on Wednesday,
as the aforementioned trough closes off across the Lower
Mississippi Valley, sending some wrap around moisture and cloud
cover back over the area.

Winds should diminish as high pressure builds into the region
during the remainder of the work week. Expect mostly clear skies
and light winds, with morning lows dropping into the low to mid
40s on Thursday morning, and upper 30s to lower 40s on Halloween morning.
By Saturday, upper ridging will build across the SW CONUS, putting
our region in a deep northwesterly flow pattern aloft. Long-term
progs are suggesting a potent disturbance will move into the area
along the flow late Saturday into Sunday morning, bringing
another chance of rain to portions of the region. A cool front
will move into the area in wake of the disturbance, bringing a
return in dry conditions by the start of next week /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

For the 28/18z TAFs...Persistant MVFR/IFR ceilings remain at several
sites at the top of the period. Showers and thunderstorms could
begin to impact KTYR and KTXK soon after 18z, with other sites
seeing impacts over the following several hours. As the cold front
moves to the southeast, areas behind the front will see a
northwesterly wind shift and an uptick in surface wind speeds.
Western sites could see 20+ kt winds with gusts of 30 kt possible
through the end of the period. Clouds will slowly clear out for many
sites overnight tonight and creep back in from the northeast by
midday tomorrow. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon across
portions of East Texas, North & Central Louisiana, and South-
Central Arkansas. Even if activation is not locally requested,
any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service
are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  62  48  66 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  49  60  48  65 /  70  10   0   0
DEQ  44  55  41  63 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  48  59  45  65 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  46  57  42  63 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  49  61  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  62  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  65  45  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...57

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
148 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

TXZ124-281915-
Wood TX-
148 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WOOD COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM CDT...

At 148 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Golden, or 8 miles northwest of Mineola, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mineola, Quitman, Hainesville, Golden, Hoard, Forest Hill and Alba.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3280 9565 3286 9562 3282 9526 3260 9537
      3272 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 288DEG 24KT 3277 9556

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

57

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
202 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

TXZ149-152-281930-
Nacogdoches TX-Cherokee TX-
202 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NACOGDOCHES AND
EAST CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Douglass, or 12 miles west of Nacogdoches, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Nacogdoches, Douglass, Appleby and Linwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3155 9496 3167 9501 3180 9460 3158 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 257DEG 34KT 3163 9486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

57