Severe Thunderstorm Warning 449, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
631 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

 - Early afternoon radar coverage is expanding quickly over our
   Western fringe of TX and OK Counties with lightning N of I-30.

 - Cold frontal passage will end the threat with cool NW winds
   gusting over I-30 before midnight, I-20 and Parishes predawn.

 - Normal Fall temps for mid to late October will remain under the
   Westerlies all week with two more opportunities for rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

The Tornado Watch #624 continues for deep E TX, Toledo Bend
Country and northeast LA until 9PM. Basically areas ahead of the
cool outflow are hanging on to heat with a line of thunderstorms
primarily along a line from Jacksonville TX to Shreveport and
Bossier to Farmerville and Strong, AR. A weak area of showers is
crossing I-30 now with the cold front set to move out of OK into W
AR and NE TX by midnight and then down I-49 overnight. Get your
jackets ready for the late night and early rise on Sunday. /24/

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 452 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Well movement to the E/NE continues to make good progress as we
have cleared another handful of NE TX Counties from Watch 624 and
added Union Co. and our remaining Parishes until 9PM. We will
address more cancellations and perhaps time extention in our next
update. /24/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

We had a warm start with a new record warm min at 71 for SHV
which is likely to hold through 1am tonight. The previous record
was 69 back in 1985. We are looking at our partly cloudy skies
filling with more mid and high clouds now from developing
convection. Our 18Z sounding will be available shortly with a bit
of weak cap at 700mb along and east of I-49. Freezing level has
dropped from 148 to 140 and this will help with hail production in
large towers. We are running all through the 80s now with still
some right to 90 readings for highs. SPC will get a look at the
sounding soon too with a watch looming for much of our area. The
chance for all modes remains even better in some regard as we had
no rain around in the middeck this am to help slow
destabilization.

Our first SPS is now active for SE OK and a watch and subsequent
warnings will likely continue this mid to late afternoon and
early evening. Overnight the weather will be exiting stage right
around midnight with clearing skies and a beauty of day to wrap up
the weekend. We are still looking at very seasonal temperatures
for much of the new week and still a couple more chances for light
rain showers Tuesday south of I-20 and then more widespread
activity with showers and isolated thunderstorms by late week.
Zones will be out shortly with temp updates for a few, no changes
to PoPs, but Weather will have the new coming watch information
going forward into tonight. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, Thunder has passed KELD and KSHV but
that may not be all with the cold front shifting winds to NW late
this evening across all terminals. So far wind damage has been
the bulk of severe threat and that will wind down with sunset.
Variable winds behind the outflow will be shifting to N/NW with
fropa and continue 10-15KT through this cycle. Cloud decks will be
clearing overnight as the mid level short wave exits AR. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Spotter activation is soon expected this afternoon through this
evening with strong to severe thunderstorms developing ahead of a
cold front later this evening. Prefrontal and frontal convection
is modeled well in the HRRR through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  74  51  81 /  80   0   0   0
MLU  63  74  46  78 / 100   0   0   0
DEQ  49  71  42  79 /  50   0   0   0
TXK  55  72  48  81 /  50   0   0   0
ELD  54  71  44  77 /  90   0   0   0
TYR  56  73  51  84 /  50   0   0   0
GGG  56  73  48  82 /  60   0   0   0
LFK  61  77  49  84 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24

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