Severe Thunderstorm Warning 430, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
802 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Expanded PoPs over deep E TX and much of LA for this afternoon.
Also, we just got MD #2123 by SPC over parts of SE OK/SW AR.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

 - Ready to part with summer heat finally as Strong to Severe
   thunderstorms are still on track for this evening, overnight
   and into much of Wednesday. Wetting rains will cool our soil.

 - Some of this rainfall maybe heavy at times as clusters of
   thunderstorms slowly work across parts of NE TX overnight.

 - Fall arrives temperature-wise in the wake of our cold front
   with northerly winds into early next week that will cool us
   down and drive out the humidity once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Another warm to hot summer-like afternoon is unfolding for us
with air temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. S/SW winds are
gusting in a few locales with some gustier rain-cooled outflow
winds spreading over our southern tier of Parishes. The KSHV 88D
is tracking numerous showers and some thunderstorms over Toledo
Bend Country up into NE LA. So we have added some PoPs for these
areas and updated all zones. Also, we are seeing some convection
blowing up over E OK that could bring a Headline update to some
of our NW zones soon.

Some of this forecast update includes "Locally heavy rainfall"
wording for overnight across several of our NE TX counties. The
HRRR is on board with a prefrontal push around midnight and more
to come ahead of the surface and elevated fronts into the mid
morning perhaps. Movement of the elements will be fairly
progressive, but the recurrent development on the boundaries may
up the totals with some 2 to 4 inches in currently our WPC QPF
storm total grid from 00Z-12Z. There is a potential for even
higher amounts in very localized area that could fall in the 5 to
8 inch range, but coverage of this is not expected to widespread
enough to warrant a flood watch at this time.

The Drought Monitor has no deficits over NE TX with antecedent
soil moisture still lingering. No doubt we will see a Flood
Warning or few overnight across I-30 and eventually down across
I-20 by daybreak through noon on Wednesday. So once again, it will
be a good idea to keep your NOAA WX radio at bedside for the
coming overnight period for wind and water. Much of the area will
see 1 to 2 inches of needed rainfall and our worst D0/D1 resides
over the Natural State, certainly welcomed there. And really that's
the side benefit of good soaking rains, as it will sink in and
cool the warmer top soil and clay beneath.

The cold front will be arriving throughout the day tomorrow as NW
winds shift into our I-30 corridor by daybreak and down to I-20
by noon, while our SE LA Parishes may have to wait until sunset
for that wind shift. This is a solid air mass in depth and not
too shallow, so the H850 moisture will be shifting out closely
behind the surface front with rains tapering after several hours
of surface winds from the NW. The surface low will be over the
plains into the mid MS River Valley during Wednesday with the H500
low at 576dam on GFS for the lowest, which shifts from KN into
MO/IL by sunset, thus keeping pulses in the zonal flow with
perturbations locked in over the front for portions of our area.

The 1020mb surface high will sit back and wait behind as the
deepening trough overhead as the KN upper low phases under the
deeper parent upper low over the Great Lakes. This will slowly
deepen the long wave while hanging onto the positive tilt through
the process. A secondary low will form over the MS River near the
boot heal of MO and drop SE toward MS and eventually GA by
Saturday afternoon. Aloft, we get to hang on to a slowly building
upper ridge over the high plains this weekend, keeping our heights
aloft a little lower and our temperatures too, right along with
as the prevailing NE surface winds linger into early next week.

High temperatures will slip back to below average 80s and lows
will be very nice again in the upper 50s and lower 60s for this
weekend, and slowly warming by next week under the broad upper
ridge eventually moving eastward. Our next chance for rainfall
may set up underneath by mid to late next week if you like the
GFS with a weak broad upper low 581 dam over Toledo Bend Country.
Upper High over Low is always "slow to go" in the pattern. A weak
588dam bubble forms over IL/IN on both GFS and ECMWF, while the
euro likes a shallow trough overhead for us instead of the GFS's
closed low. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the 24/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail for now but that
will be short-lived as strong to severe convection advances into
our airspace this evening through the overnight hours and much of
Wednesday. This convection will result in rapidly deteriorating
flight categories with MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys expected with the
strongest showers and thunderstorms. In addition, more widespread
low cigs will follow as the associated cold front continues to
advance SE through our airspace over the next 24 hours. Some minor
improvement in flight categories may come very late in the period,
but still likely will remain MVFR at best with winds veering from
the S/SW to the W/NW with fropa as speeds generally range between
6-12 kts with much higher gusts possible invof convection.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Spotter activation is likely to become necessary by later this
afternoon, into this evening and through the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  85  68  85 /  30  80  30  10
MLU  75  88  68  86 /  10  80  60  20
DEQ  69  81  61  81 /  80  50  10  10
TXK  73  82  64  83 /  60  70  10  10
ELD  71  81  62  83 /  30  80  20  20
TYR  74  80  64  82 /  60  80  20   0
GGG  73  82  64  83 /  40  80  20   0
LFK  74  90  67  86 /  10  80  50  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
243 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

LAZ013-019-021-022-232030-
Jackson LA-Winn LA-Caldwell LA-La Salle LA-
243 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LA SALLE...
SOUTHERN JACKSON...SOUTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND NORTHEASTERN WINN
PARISHES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 11 miles east of Winnfield to near
Jena, or extending from 11 miles east of Winnfield to 26 miles south
of Columbia, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Jena, Olla, Midway, Urania, Tullos, Sikes, Standard, Burlington,
  Spaulding and Kelly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 9244 3220 9241 3201 9216 3189 9201
      3175 9201 3165 9221 3179 9236 3180 9236
      3180 9237 3195 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 222DEG 14KT 3197 9247 3182 9231 3173 9217

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

53

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
318 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

LAZ005-012>014-232100-
Jackson LA-Ouachita LA-Bienville LA-Lincoln LA-
318 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OUACHITA...SOUTH
CENTRAL LINCOLN...JACKSON AND EAST CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISHES UNTIL
4 PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jonesboro, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Ruston, Grambling, Jonesboro, Chatham, Hodge, North Hodge, East
  Hodge, Quitman, Eros and Mount Olive.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 9278 3227 9284 3258 9264 3235 9225
      3215 9260 3215 9268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 222DEG 16KT 3226 9267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
319 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

LAZ014-021-232045-
Caldwell LA-Ouachita LA-
319 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL OUACHITA AND
CALDWELL PARISHES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grayson, or 5 miles south of Columbia, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Columbia, Clarks, Grayson, Riverton and Bosco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 9208 3232 9201 3228 9203 3228 9199
      3223 9201 3221 9199 3219 9201 3220 9198
      3217 9198 3216 9190 3210 9187 3207 9193
      3204 9190 3197 9189 3197 9190 3193 9190
      3193 9204 3209 9228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 215DEG 15KT 3203 9209

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
742 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

OKZ077-240145-
McCurtain OK-
742 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

At 742 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 32
miles northwest of Broken Bow, or 46 miles northwest of De Queen,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Sherwood, Mount Herman, Smithville, Bethel, Battiest, Watson,
  Plunketville and Pickens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 9447 3433 9505 3451 9505 3451 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 272DEG 24KT 3442 9501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19