Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
136 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Some pop up convection is beginning to be picked up on radar in
our southern zones at the time of writing. Storms are expected to
continue to pop up through the afternoon into the first few hours
of the forecast period this evening. But with the upper-level
ridge still firmly in place over much of the Southeast US, skies
will mostly clear out overnight. Lows will fall to the low to mid
70s just before sunrise tomorrow.

The upper-level ridge will begin to retrograde over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. The ridge axis will situate itself
over the southern Ozarks, which could provide some upper-level
support for any afternoon thunderstorms that develop. That being
said, recent model runs aren't picking up on this idea. Both the
HRRR and HREF have continued to suggest scattered, small
thunderstorms developing across the Ark-La-Tx Wednesday afternoon.
None of these storms seem to be developing into anything stronger
or longer-lived in the models, which suggests that this ridge axis
won't be strong enough forcing to produce anything of terrible
concern. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s will still make for a
very warm afternoon. Current heat index estimations for tomorrow
are just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, so I will defer any
product to the mid shift as more data becomes available.
Temperatures Wednesday night will stay consistent with previous
observed temps in the low to mid 70s. /57/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Persistant southerly flow, along with the return of the upper-
level ridge, will promote more heat and humidity through the long
term period. Yesterday's 6-10 day temperature outlook has some
confidence of above average temperatures for the region through
the aforementioned period because of these factors. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be likely with this
heat and overall lack of large-scale forcing. However, long range
guidance is suggesting an inverted upper-level trough will be
develop and retrograde through northern Florida, southern Georgia,
and southern Alabama this weekend. If this pattern continues,
which NBM is also picking up on, there may be enough forcing for
more widespread rain in our southeastern zones beginning on
Sunday. I left PoPs alone past Sunday as there still is plenty of
model uncertainty present with the development and movement of
the inverted trough. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the 24/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail this afternoon
with an expanding cu field across our airspace. Spotty showers
have already begun to develop across Deep East TX so have inserted
VCSH at KLFK to begin the TAF period. By around 21Z, the threat of
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will increase so have
included VCTS at KLFK/KGGG/KSHV/KTXK from late afternoon through
early evening at these terminals. Otherwise, will handle any TSRA
on-station with amendments as necessary. Look for light S/SE winds
to persist throughout much of the period with higher speeds/gusts
invof convection. Cu field will largely dissipate overnight as
convection dies off with some low stratus and patchy fog possible
as KLFK closer to daybreak while cumulus returns areawide toward
the end of the period.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms
capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter
activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not
likely through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  76  96 /  30  20   0  10
MLU  75  95  76  96 /  20  20   0  10
DEQ  71  92  71  93 /  20  20   0   0
TXK  75  96  75  96 /  20  20   0   0
ELD  73  95  73  96 /  20  20   0  10
TYR  73  90  73  92 /  20  20   0  10
GGG  72  92  73  93 /  20  20   0  10
LFK  72  91  72  93 /  30  40   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...19

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