Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Pesky convection along a residual outflow boundary that moved
south of our SW AR counties earlier this morning continues to
move southward across N LA this afternoon with plentiful moisture
in advance of this feature not to mention just enough instability
to sustain this convection. While no widespread severe storms are
expected with this convection this afternoon/evening, an isolated
severe storm cannot be ruled out.

A much more significant storm complex is expected to develop and
mature just upstream of the Middle Red River Valley much later
this evening and is poised to begin impacting our northwest
portions of the Red River Valley near or shortly before midnight.
A majority of the CAMS, HRRR and deterministic progs are all
pointing at storm clusters near or upstream of the I-35 Corridor
of N TX/S OK maturing into an MCS with the potential for
widespread damaging wind gusts near or in excess of 75 mph across
SPC's Enhanced Risk area which constitutes much of NE TX, SE OK,
SW AR and extreme NW LA. Timing of the leading edge of these
storms appear to be near or shortly after midnight moving into the
I-30 Corridor with the storms rapidly accelerating towards the
I-20/I-49 corridors of SW AR and NW LA near or shortly after 3am
with the leading edge of the strongest convective winds exiting
our far eastern parishes across NE LA near shortly after 5-6 am
Monday Morning. While damaging wind gusts are far and away the
most significant and heightened threat with this storm complex
overnight, quick developing, short duration but intense tornadoes
can develop along the leading edge of such a complex and this will
need to be monitored for as well as we go through the night.

A bulk, if not all of this severe weather should be south and
east of our southern and eastern most areas near or shortly after
sunrise Monday Morning but held onto small chance pops throughout
the day given that we still are under the influence of some weak
forcing aloft. Any additional storms that develop in the wake of
this complex on Monday should remain below severe limits but the
remnant boundary in association with the complex poised to impact
our region tonight will likely hang up stationary across our far
southern zones and thus, will become a favored area for additional
nocturnal storms Monday Night. Some low-level overrunning to
enhance this precipitation potential could be present as well so
increased pops to likely category across our far southern zones
Monday Night.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The above mentioned boundary will try to return across our region
late Tuesday into Wednesday with additional disturbances poised
to ride along this feature in WNW to ESE flow aloft Tue into Tue
Night. Thus, rain chances will remain high across our southern
half as we approach the middle of the work week.

Upper flow flattens out a little by Wednesday as an upper level
trough matures across the Upper Red River Valley which will
transition our flow from northwest aloft so southwest aloft.
Unfortunately, Rain chances will remain high across much of our
region Wednesday through at least the end of the upcoming work
week as the trough is slow to exit our region. This weakness in
the upper level pattern even shows signs of continuing into next
weekend so if you like wet weather, this is your week. Obviously
with continued days of rainfall we will need to turn our attention
to area lakes and river as we will most certainly see additional
rises on our area waterways through this upcoming forecast period
as well.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

For the 09/00Z TAF update, a mixture of VCTS and MVFR vis/cigs are
expected through most of the period until at least 09/21Z after
the clouds from another more substantial round of -TSRA passes
through the airspace. Slow improvement to VFR vis/cigs will occur
with northerly winds by the end of the period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Spotters have been activated across East Texas for Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 397 in effect until 9 PM CDT. Further
activation will be likely later tonight with subsequent weather
watch issuance. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  87  72  91 /  80  40  40  40
MLU  72  86  70  88 /  80  40  40  40
DEQ  68  85  63  89 /  80  30   0   0
TXK  71  85  68  90 /  80  30  10  10
ELD  68  85  65  88 /  80  40  20  20
TYR  71  85  70  89 /  80  30  50  40
GGG  70  86  69  89 /  80  30  40  40
LFK  72  88  72  88 /  80  40  60  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...16

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