Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
635 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

We have removed our TX counties, a near handful of of Parishes in
NW LA and Columbia Co. in S AR from Tornado Watch #8. The
remaining Parishes include Toledo Bend Country, up to Homer and El
Dorado and eastward until 10PM with our next update. The Wind
Advisory for the afternoon has been allowed to expire at the top
of the hour as scheduled. Meanwhile, the hunt for damage locations is
underway, so if you become aware of any such instances with the
passage of the line of storms this afternoon, please go to our
website at weather.gov/shv and submit a storm report for the most
efficient way to communicate your findings.

The cold front is now making headway into the our cwa over our NE
TX Counties and will continue to force the line rapidly eastward.
It's 54 in Idabel and 74 in Natchitoches and 73 in Ruston and
Monroe. The threat for severe storms continues with isolated
tornadic activity still possible ahead of and along the line. Stay
on the alert with all available communications now that night has
fallen. The strongest part of the line with two current warnings
stretches from just past Many to Hall Summit to Homer and
El Dorado and is moving eastward at 25 mph with storms along the
line moving much faster around 50 mph. More to come this evening
as the potent cold front brings winter back and then some. /24/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

The latest timing guidance pushes the bulk of today's severe
thunderstorms through the western two-thirds ArkLaTex by 00Z, and as
we approach sundown, the squall line looks to be solidly into
Louisiana, bringing impacts to Monroe, Natchitoches, and areas east.
The maturing squall line looks to gather intensity as it progresses
east, and the primary associated hazard appears to be damaging wind
gusts, but given what looks to be strong low level shear, embedded
tornadoes remain possible. Storms should largely exit the region by
03Z, with quiet conditions prevailing as midnight approaches.

The cold front will be in the process of completing its passage of
the ArkLaTex overnight, thus lows Sunday morning will range
dramatically based on its position, from the mid to upper 20s
northwest to upper 30s southeast. Under clearing skies, temperatures
will warm only into the 40s and lower 50s Sunday afternoon, with
cold air advection facilitated by a stiff north wind. Overnight into
Monday morning, mostly clear skies and calmer winds will allow for a
more even distribution of radiational cooling, as near or sub-
freezing temperatures look to settle in areawide as dawn breaks on
the new work week.

SP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

After a blustery end to the weekend, a gradual warm up is in store
early in the week, with more 50s and 60s returning for highs, while
quiet conditions continue, but this is looking to be a relatively
brief respite. Northwest flow aloft behind this weekend's trough
will flatten out into a zonal pattern, but by next Tuesday, a
developing shortwave trough will amplify and dig south across the
central and southern Plains. This will serve to kick up new rounds
of showers across western portions of the ArkLaTex, looking to begin
as early as Tuesday morning, spreading east through the day. Recent
long range model runs have been showing steadily increasing
confidence in these impacts. This persistence applies as well to the
sub-freezing temperatures across a sizable portion of the region
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, and the attendant potential
for winter weather impacts.

Long range guidance has been trending more aggressive with the
incoming cold airmass next week, giving us lower 20s north, upper
20s to just below freezing along I-20, and barely above freezing
further south for lows Wednesday morning in the latest run. Safe to
say, much of the region, especially north of I-20, will likely see a
brief transition to some wintry precip overnight if these
temperatures play out. The uncertainty remains in precisely what
type of wintry wx and how far south impacts will reach, and upcoming
model runs will add clarity on that matter. For now, areas north of
I-30 may see snow and wintry mix, with mixed precip along the I-20
corridor between midnight and dawn, and cold rain further south.
Bear in mind, minor shifts in the position of the freezing line may
have dramatic consequences on the precip type forecast, so stay
tuned for the latest updates in the days ahead.

Precip looks to come to an end early Wednesday morning, if not
entirely before daybreak, with quiet and very cold conditions
closing out the work week. In the wake of Tuesday night's mixed
precip, guidance indicates a reinforcing shot of extremely cold air
plunging lows into the teens Thursday morning for much of the
region, with the warmest sites just scratching the 20 degree mark.
Exactly how cold this airmass will be remains to be seen, but it
looks to maintain its grip on the region through the end of the
forecast period, with afternoon highs in the 30s and 40s, and sub-
freezing lows through late next week.

SP

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

A line of thunderstorms is pushing across the area as of around
00z 2/16, mainly set to affect KMLU and KELD. Gusty winds of 35 to
40 kts and reduced vsbys to 2 to 4 SM are associated with this
line of convection. All convection will move east of the terminals
in the 04-05z timeframe with MVFR settling in behind the line of
convection. The evening and overnight period tonight will be
breezy with winds shifting from the W/SW to the NW sustained
between 15 and 20kts with gusts 25 to 30kts. Winds will gradually
relax through Sunday morning, with gusts eventually ending Sunday
afternoon with clearing skies/ a return to VFR conditions.

Kovacik

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 402 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Spotter activation will be necessary by early afternoon through the
evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  49  31  55 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  39  52  30  52 /  50   0   0   0
DEQ  26  45  23  50 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  32  48  27  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  33  49  26  52 /  60   0   0   0
TYR  31  48  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  32  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  52  33  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...23

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
515 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

LAZ010-011-017-018-TXZ153-165>167-160000-
Natchitoches LA-De Soto LA-Shelby TX-Sabine LA-San Augustine TX-
Sabine TX-Red River LA-Angelina TX-
515 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
ANGELINA...SABINE...SAN AUGUSTINE AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES
AND WESTERN NATCHITOCHES...NORTHWESTERN SABINE...SOUTH CENTRAL RED
RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN DE SOTO PARISHES UNTIL 6 PM CST...

At 515 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Mansfield to 22 miles southeast of
Huntington, or extending from near Mansfield to 26 miles southeast
of Diboll, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Milam, San Augustine, Zwolle, Hemphill, Pineland, Converse,
  Patroon, Rosevine, Macune, Oak Grove, Pleasant Hill, Zavalla,
  Huxley, South Mansfield, Noble, Broaddus, Sexton, Toledo Bend
  Reservoir North, Jordans Store and Hurstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 9435 3123 9433 3125 9434 3127 9434
      3201 9381 3200 9326 3116 9385 3114 9403
      3111 9406 3103 9447 3104 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 255DEG 17KT 3198 9368 3154 9398 3099 9441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
519 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

ARZ072-073-LAZ003>006-012-160000-
Webster LA-Union AR-Claiborne LA-Bienville LA-Lincoln LA-Union LA-
Columbia AR-
519 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLUMBIA COUNTIES AND NORTHWESTERN UNION...CLAIBORNE...WESTERN
LINCOLN...NORTHEASTERN BIENVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER PARISHES
UNTIL 6 PM CST...

At 519 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 11 miles northeast of Smackover to over
Minden, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Minden, Grambling, Homer, Smackover, Norphlet, Junction
  City, Arcadia, Haynesville, Bernice, Sibley, Gibsland, Doyline,
  Calion, Dubberly, Dixie Inn, Heflin, Atlanta, Wesson and Cooley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 9344 3330 9299 3338 9272 3336 9266
      3337 9264 3336 9260 3337 9259 3337 9255
      3333 9252 3332 9252 3333 9250 3332 9249
      3333 9248 3332 9247 3332 9246 3331 9247
      3330 9246 3329 9247 3327 9243 3251 9273
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 239DEG 36KT 3349 9261 3308 9288 3262 9326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
611 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

LAZ020-022-160100-
Grant LA-La Salle LA-
611 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LA SALLE AND CENTRAL
GRANT PARISHES UNTIL 7 PM CST...

At 611 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Colfax, or 32 miles south of Winnfield, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Jena, Colfax, Olla, Midway, Urania, Pollock, Dry Prong, Tullos,
  Georgetown, Fishville, Zenoria, Rochelle and Bentley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 9224 3176 9201 3143 9244 3139 9265
      3139 9266 3141 9267 3140 9268 3141 9269
      3142 9268 3142 9269 3143 9269 3145 9268
      3145 9271 3147 9271 3147 9269 3149 9270
      3150 9268 3150 9270 3151 9271
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 227DEG 46KT 3146 9263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

50

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
636 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

LAZ005-012-013-160115-
Lincoln LA-Jackson LA-Bienville LA-
636 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN
JACKSON AND EAST CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISHES UNTIL 715 PM CST...

At 636 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Jonesboro, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Ruston, Grambling, Choudrant, Hodge, North Hodge, East Hodge,
  Bienville, Quitman, Mount Olive and Liberty Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 9283 3266 9251 3249 9242 3241 9242
      3221 9284 3236 9297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 235DEG 41KT 3232 9285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

50