Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1237 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

Added Tornado Watch 1 to headlines and bumped max Ts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

Sorry for the update delay, but we wanted to get an 18Z balloon
going. Peaks of sunshine and a little lagniappe warming with highs
in the low to mid 70s. Might even touch near 80 in our SE
Parishes, but the clouds are bringing in spotty thunderstorms from
Toledo Bend Dam to Monroe now. The main line was a prefrontal
earlier in E TX, but with the core upper low going negative tilt
mid morning over central OK, things are merging at this hour.
Thunderstorms in this developing line stretch from near Lufkin to
Waskom and Magnolia. Movement of the line is east around 25mph
with warnings bearing slightly faster storm speeds in the deep SW
flow aloft. Our 18Z sounding will be available shortly with a
little extra gas for lift. Temps are falling quickly behind the
front with gusty NW winds 30-40mph and more. It's still 40s into
McCurtain and lower across I-30. Along I-20 the front is past
Longview and nearing Marshall with mid 60s moments ago. Stay tuned
for our first round of canceled counties and parishes with the
mid aftn issuance. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 434 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

Arctic sfc ridging will begin to build SE into the region Monday
afternoon and Monday night, although winds should keep the air
mixed enough to maintain temps in the 20s overnight under a mostly
clear sky. Some increase in cirrus is expected Monday night
though, ahead of a deepening upper trough that will dive S and
begin closing off Tuesday as it digs through the Desert SW Tuesday
into Baja CA/NW old MX Wednesday. The Arctic sfc ridging will
maintain the big chill over the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley through
midweek, with temps struggling to climb into the 40s each
afternoon, with prolonged periods of subfreezing temps expected
after sunset. Dry conditions will continue though, before a SW
flow aloft begin to spread E over the region by Wednesday
night/Thursday as the Baja CA closed low begin to eject E and open
up across the Srn Rockies/Nrn Old MX.

The approach of this trough should induce sfc cyclogenesis over
the NW Gulf/Middle TX coast Thursday as it shifts E along the SE
TX/Srn LA coasts or the Nrn Gulf Thursday night/Friday (per the
deterministic GFS/ECMWF). The medium range ensembles are a bit
faster with its development/Ewd shifting of the trough, suggesting
areas of a cold -RA over much of TX occurring during the day
Wednesday, which may spread into Lower E TX S of I-20 late
Wednesday night. The column would have to saturate from the top
down around the periphery of the departing sfc ridge axis, with
evaporative cooling leading to the potential for -SN across these
areas through Thursday morning. However, weak warm advection
through the day Thursday should allow for an eventual changeover
to -RA especially along/S of I-20, although a wintry mix may
persist a bit longer across the Nrn zones as sfc temps and the
associated column will be slower to climb above freezing.

The ensembles continue the trend in warming sfc temps further
Thursday night as overrunning increases atop the cold air in
place, and thus have bumped up NBM temps a degree or two (but
still a bit colder than the ensemble and deterministic guidance)
with min temps near or slightly above freezing Thursday night
along/S of I-20. However, weakening overrunning and thus colder
sfc temps to the N should result in the slight potential for
accumulating IP/-SN, but amounts should remain light. However,
given the trends in the models towards warming sfc temps and thus,
the warming atmospheric columns in recent days, it's certainly
possible that the impacts of any wintry mix may decline in the
coming days and thus, all eyes should continue to be focused on
the additional updated forecasts as this potential threat is
further refined.

This precipitation should diminish from W to E Friday as drier air
entrains NE with the ejecting upper trough, with a slow warming
trend also commencing by next weekend.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

For the 05/18z TAFS...Reduced flight categories remain across the
region, as showers and thunderstorms, with low cigs, continue to
push east across the region along and ahead of a cold front. The
convection has cleared KTYR/KGGG/KTXK, so we will see some brief
improvement, but low cigs are expected to return overnight and
hold across the remainder of the region in wake of the storm.
However, we will see clearing skies across our East Texas sites,
and possibly KTXK/KSHV by the end of the period. In wake of the
front, expect gusty NW winds near 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph.

/20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 342 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon over Deep East
Texas, North Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas, with the potential
for severe thunderstorms. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  26  41  25 /  90   0   0   0
MLU  74  27  41  24 /  90  30   0   0
DEQ  61  20  38  17 /  80   0   0   0
TXK  69  23  40  22 /  90   0   0   0
ELD  68  24  40  21 /  90   0   0   0
TYR  72  24  39  25 /  80   0   0   0
GGG  72  24  40  22 /  90   0   0   0
LFK  75  26  43  24 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for OKZ077.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...20

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