Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
238 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.Key Messages...

- Portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232 have been upgraded to
Tornado Watch 234 through 9 PM CDT.

- All WFO Shreveport responsible Louisiana Parishes have been
included in Tornado Watch 234 through 9 PM CDT.

- All modes of severe weather will be possible along and south of
the I-20 corridor through the evening. This includes a flash flood
threat for much of the CWA.

A linear mode of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently present
east of the DFW metroplex, moving through the SHV CWA responsible
ETX counties. Ahead of this storm mode elevated severe
thunderstorms north of the lifting warm front have also resulted
in instances of gusty winds and large hail across NWLA and into SW
Arkansas.

Within the last hour, a Tornado Watch has been issued for the East
Texas I-20 corridor counties and all of the SHV responsible
Louisiana Parishes through 9 PM CDT as the linear complex moves east
through the late afternoon and evening, with discrete supercells
possible ahead of the complex. Though discrete supercells will pose
the greatest potential for tornadoes, especially along and south of
the northward advancing warm front, strong straight-line winds will
accompany a bowing complex evolving across East and Deep East TX
this afternoon, extending into portions of West-Central and
Northwest Louisiana. Both current radar imagery and the latest hi-
res model guidance advertise this evolution. Though strong straight-
line winds will be a concern, embedded tornadoes within the bow
segment, especially along and south of the warm front will be
possible. Still some uncertainty surrounding how far north the warm
front advances over the next hour or so, given that convection
firing now will likely delay additional northward advancement. Along
with the local severe threat, heavy rainfall under the massive
complex will aid in a flood threat across already saturated soils.

This complex will continue to march east, with current expectation
that the line departs the CWA close to midnight, give or take an
hour on both sides. Behind the passing complex, winds will begin to
turn calmer overnight and with saturated soils in place, patchy fog
will be possible across the local area through the morning. Showers,
and an isolated storm or two may be possible across the area
tomorrow afternoon as energy associated with the upper low begins
to spin overhead of the Four State Region. This upper level
energy will remain parked over the region through the overnight,
and into the extended period.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The long term period will see it's primary influence from an upper
level disturbance parked over the Four State Region through the end
of the week and through the upcoming weekend. As a result, daily
isolated showers, maybe a few t-storms will be possible. Anomalistic
blocking to the east and north of the upper low will begin to
collapse into mid-week next week, allowing for the disturbance to
kick east and out of the local area. PoPs through the extended will
be marginal, generally less than 50s, with many even lower.

Under the upper low, temperatures will trend close to seasonal, if
not a few degrees below, with highs in the mid to upper 70's.
Towards the back side of the forecast period, leading into mid-week,
ridging will begin to gradually introduce itself back to the local
area, with long range projections indictating a stretch of 80's,
potentially upper 80's for some by next Tuesday.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

For the 05/18z TAF Period....Flight conditions will diminish for
the remainder of the day at all sites, as an area of strong to
severe storms move across the region. Behind the storms, fog is
expected to develop, which will keep reduced flight conditions in
our forecast. The fog should lift by the end of the period, but
low cigs will remain. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Spotter activation is expected later today as early as midday and
continuing through the evening. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  85  66  84 /  80  10  20  30
MLU  66  84  65  83 / 100  30  30  60
DEQ  59  79  56  78 /  70  10  30  40
TXK  62  82  61  81 /  80  10  20  40
ELD  60  83  61  82 /  90  10  30  50
TYR  63  82  62  81 /  40  10  20  20
GGG  63  83  62  82 /  60  10  20  30
LFK  65  85  64  85 /  80  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...20

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
319 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 NW Mount Enterprise   31.99N 94.76W
05/06/2025                   Rusk               TX   Emergency Mngr

            Report of a tree down on FM 1798 west of US
            259.

&&

AEC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
324 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NNE Mount Enterprise  31.98N 94.66W
05/06/2025                   Rusk               TX   Emergency Mngr

            Report of a few trees down on Texas 315
            north of FM 95.

&&

AEC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
333 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     Hail             El Dorado               33.22N 92.66W
05/06/2025  E1.00 Inch       Union              AR   Broadcast Media

            Quarter sized hail reported at KARD Studio
            in El Dorado.

&&

AEC

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
408 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     Flash Flood      5 SW Shreveport         32.43N 93.86W
05/06/2025                   Caddo              LA   Public

            Report of flooding over Pines Rd and Buncomb
            Rd.

&&

AEC