Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
659 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Things have been quiet so far since this morning convection
dissipated. But, southerly winds have been on the increase this
afternoon, with gusts as high as 30 mph at times. Although we have
seen some sustained winds of 20 mph, those readings have been
isolated, so will hold off on a Wind Advisory. Regardless, it will
still be breezy out there, so exercise caution on area waterways
and roadways. As we move into the late afternoon and early evening
hours, models continue to suggest a pre-frontal trough or dryline
like feature will move into the area ahead of the aforementioned
frontal boundary. With today's southerly winds raising our dew
points into the mid 60s and temps into the 80s, the atmosphere
should be plenty unstable ahead of this pre-frontal feature.
Discrete storms are expected to rapidly develop across the western
half of the region before eventually becoming more of a QLCS
feature with the arrival of the front later this evening and
during the overnight hours. With steep mid-level lapse rates and
decent effective bulk shear, all modes of severe weather will be
possible, especially large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be a threat.

Convection should clear the forecast area by mid to late Monday
morning, as the front exists the region. Cooler and drier air will
move into the area, with overnight lows returning back into the
50s areawide Monday night/Tuesday morning, and possibly upper 40s
in our northern zones. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Dry weather will remain across the region on Tuesday, but another
approaching cold front will bring us a chance for more strong to
severe storms by next Wednesday. At the same time, upper ridging
will build into the southeast CONUS. This will likely stop the
eastward progression of the front and stall it out near our
northwest zones for the remainder of next week into early next
weekend. Rain chances will remain across the forecast area during
this period, with more severe weather possible. This could also
result in excessive rainfall, with storms expected to train over
the same areas near the frontal boundary. One thing of note will
be where the front hangs up next week. It is possible the front
could stall just north of the region, which would be favorable for
less severe weather and heavy rain in our area. However, if the
frontal boundary stalls more southward, it could be a busy week
for portions of the Four State Region. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

The main aviation concern through the evening hours is potential
for rapid strong to severe thunderstorm development that would
initially affect SHV / TYR / GGG/ LFK through midnight tonight.
Impacts are less certain at TXK as there is a decent probability
most of the storms firing up along the incoming cold front could
wait until cold front clears south of TXK. Storms will likely hold
off until closer to midnight and into the early morning hours at
ELD and MLU. The main risk with severe storms will be large hail
up to golf ball size, damaging winds gusts in excess of 60 mph,
frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. Expect problematic
to mostly clear east of our region by daybreak on Monday, although
MVFR to IFR cloud decks will build in behind the front late
tonight at SHV, ELD, MLU, and LFK and likely will not lift to VFR
levels until later tomorrow morning at the earliest. Winds will be
a bit gusty from the SSW ahead of the cold front, but then
switching to the north at 8 to 15 mph as the cold front passes
through tonight. /50/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Spotter activation will be needed by late this afternoon and
tonight for much of the Four State Region. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  75  56  82 /  70  10   0   0
MLU  64  76  53  82 /  70  20   0   0
DEQ  48  73  47  78 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  55  75  52  81 /  60  10   0   0
ELD  56  75  48  80 /  70  10   0   0
TYR  55  75  57  84 /  50  10   0   0
GGG  56  75  55  83 /  60  10   0   0
LFK  63  78  60  85 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...50

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
857 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Hail             2 NNE Mount Enterprise  31.94N 94.67W
03/30/2025  E1.00 Inch       Rusk               TX   Trained Spotter

            Reported just NE of Mount Enterprise along
            highway 315. Time estimated by radar.

&&

BB

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
938 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Hail             4 N Reklaw              31.93N 94.98W
03/30/2025  E2.00 Inch       Rusk               TX   Public

            Social media report of at least 2 inch size
            hail just south of Lake Striker.

&&

BB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
943 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

TXZ150>152-310315-
Rusk TX-Nacogdoches TX-Panola TX-
943 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NACOGDOCHES...
SOUTHWESTERN PANOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN RUSK COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
CDT...

At 943 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Trawick, or 18 miles north of Nacogdoches, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Garrison, Trawick, Cushing, Mount Enterprise, Lawsonville, Dotson
  and Looneyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 9483 3198 9479 3209 9449 3197 9450
      3197 9451 3192 9451 3191 9450 3176 9451
      3169 9488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 253DEG 27KT 3188 9465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

53

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
953 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     Hail             Timpson                 31.91N 94.40W
03/30/2025  E1.75 Inch       Shelby             TX   Public

            Hail up to golf ball size reported in the
            town of Timpson.

&&

BB