Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
525 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

As of the 08Z hour, a broad area of showers is advancing north and
west across extreme southeast Oklahoma, northeast Texas and
southwest Arkansas. Embedded areas of convection within are
beginning to show signatures of thunder, but remain below advisory
criteria as of this writing. Isolated showers drift due north ahead
and south of this complex. As a cold front pushes north across the
ArkLaTex this morning, elevated south winds will advect a modified
Gulf airmass into the region, allowing our east Texas and Louisiana
zones to climb into the low to middle 70s by midday.

Meanwhile, a surface cold front propagates eastward across central
Texas at this hour. Based on the latest high resolution short range
guidance, this front will swing a line of more potent convection
into the ArkLaTex late this morning and into the afternoon hours. As
this complex moves into the destabilized airmass, storms are
expected to become strong to severe. The primary mode of severe
weather is anticipated to be gusty winds, but hail and tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, as heavy rain trains across our
northwestern zones, areas of flash flooding are possible,
particularly north of I-20 in east Texas and into Oklahoma and
Arkansas. Impacted zones are included in a Flood Watch which remains
in effect through 00Z this evening.

Short range guidance is fairly progressive with the timing of this
system, with the front pushing rainfall east of I-49 by sundown, and
out of the ArkLaTex altogether by midnight. Winds will become
westerly in the wake of the front, and overcast skies will begin to
clear through the night, while temperatures drop into the 40s. Under
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, highs Friday will climb into
the 60s areawide.

SP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

By Friday evening, the upper level trough responsible for Thursday's
storms will have lifted north and east into the Ohio Valley, making
way for pseudo-zonal flow to dominate through the weekend and into
early next week. Long range guidance is somewhat split on the nature
of a series of weak disturbances, but as of this writing, these
features do not look sufficiently amplified to make a dent in the
ArkLaTex's period of quiet conditions until next Wednesday. As a
weak shortwave pushes east, slight chances of showers and storms
will impact our northern zones Wednesday morning, continuing through
to the end of this extended forecast period.

After a slightly milder end to January on Friday and start to
February on Saturday, temperatures will rebound quickly and
noticeably, with the rest of the first week of February seeing very
warm conditions for much of the region, with highs climbing into the
upper 60s to lower 70s northwest and mid to upper 70s southeast 70s
late this weekend and continuing into next week. Aside from a few
30s returning Saturday morning, lows will sit squarely in the 40s
and 50s throughout.

SP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

For the 30/12z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing areas of
moderate rainfall across east Texas, southeast Oklahoma and
western Arkansas this morning. Expecting showers and thunderstorms
to increase in coverage through the morning and into the
afternoon. As such, there will be a wide variety of MVFR to IFR
and LIFR at times throughout this period due to limited visibility
from any heavier rainfall, lower ceilings and some BR scattered
in. I don't really see any improvement coming to these flight
conditions throughout this TAF period. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Spotter activation may be needed today for flash flood and severe
weather reports.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  48  66  42 /  80  10   0   0
MLU  75  50  67  42 /  60  80   0   0
DEQ  66  40  62  34 /  90   0   0   0
TXK  68  47  64  39 /  90   0   0   0
ELD  71  46  65  39 /  80  30   0   0
TYR  66  46  64  41 /  80   0   0   0
GGG  69  44  65  39 /  70   0   0   0
LFK  71  46  66  42 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ050-051-059.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ096.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...33