Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS San Diego, CA

547 
WGUS76 KSGX 140340
FFSSGX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Diego CA
740 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

CAC071-140445-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250214T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino CA-
740 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM PST THIS 
EVENING FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

At 740 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned 
area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected 
rainfall rate is 0.1 to 0.3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall 
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  San Bernardino, Hesperia, Redlands, Yucaipa, Lake Arrowhead, 
  Forest Falls, Mount San Gorgonio, Highland, Big Bear Lake and 
  Running Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of 
creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos is likely. The heavy rains 
will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep 
terrain, especially in and around these areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 11679 3402 11700 3412 11721 3415 11728
      3417 11732 3417 11734 3418 11734 3431 11735
      3430 11712 3419 11684

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.1-0.3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Munyan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
200 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will increase in intensity this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the region. Though the thunderstorm chance
remains low, some areas may see heavy rain at times, especially
along the coastal slopes. As the system departs, leftover light
showers will continue at times on Friday, decreasing and ending
from northwest to southeast Friday night. West and south winds
will be gusty this afternoon through Friday afternoon, where
desert slopes will gusts over 55 MPH at times, highest in the San
Bernardino Mountains. Drier and warmer weather can be expected
this weekend into much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM...(Through the weekend)

A large area of low pressure moving westward into Northern
California will continue to bring beneficial precipitation to our
region. Heavier showers seen on radar are beginning to intensify
across the LA Basin and adjacent coastal slopes, where rain rates
near one half inch have been reported. Areas above 6,500 feet will
see the most snow from this system as snow levels fall tonight
into Friday morning. For latest forecast precipitation amounts and
hourly rates, please see the Hydrology section below. As the
heaviest precipitation moves through today and tonight, please
travel with care and allow adequate time to reach your
destination.

Gusty south and west winds are currently gusting 35-55 MPH across
mountainous areas across the San Bernardino mts into the high
desert, where Victorville Airport reported a wind gust of 49 MPH.
High winds will begin to spread southward into Riverside and San
Diego Counties later this afternoon. Mountain and desert slope
regions will see winds trend downward overnight, then ramp back up
by Friday afternoon. Friday will continue to be cooler with 30s
and 40s across the mountains. Clouds will begin to break across
the deserts but have a tough time in doing so along and west of
the mountains. Better clearing with drier weather will occur this
weekend with highs reaching near 70 in the western valleys by
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Next Week)...

Model guidance continues to agree on the dry weather pattern
continuing into the first half of the work week next week as a
ridge of high pressure dominates off the coast. NBM guidance is
agreeable with highs near average by Monday and Tuesday, with
greater warming by the middle of the week as the area of high
pressure becomes stronger over our region. This pattern will keep
wet weather out of and far north of our area for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
121730Z...Coast/Valleys/Foothills...Waves of -RA/BR will continue
through the afternoon with more persistent -RA/RA further north,
especially for the northern Inland Empire near the San Bernardino
County Mtns. Cigs generally 500-1500 feet MSL and vis 3-5 SM
occasionally dropping lower in -RA/BR. Breaks in shower activity
may briefly allow MVFR conditions at times. Scattered southerly
gusts to 20-25kts beginning around 15Z will become more widespread
after 00Z Friday. A band of RA/+RA will push southeastward across
the area from around 02Z to 10Z. Slight chance of embedded
thunderstorms. Widespread IFR cigs/vis with the passage of this
band with winds switching westerly and slowly weakening. Cigs and
vis trend higher Friday morning with generally MVFR conditions
outside of scattered -SHRA. Low cigs should scatter out by early
afternoon in most areas.

Mountains/Deserts...Coastal slopes of the mtns obscured in FG
through this evening and elevations up to 7000 feet obscured through
18Z Friday. Scattered low clouds will continue to produce patchy FG
thereafter. Steady RA with pockets of +RA will continue for the
coastal slopes through this afternoon. A band of +RA will push west
to east across the area from around 02Z to 10Z. Slight chance of
embedded thunderstorms. Scattered -SHRA has spread to the deserts
allowing for intermittent MVFR conditions through this evening. This
evening's band will allow for more widespread -RA/RA first for the
High Desert from 00Z-06Z then for the low deserts from 05Z-10Z. IFR
conditions possible for the High Desert with generally MVFR cigs and
vis for the low deserts. Gusty winds are strengthening through the
mountain passes and deserts currently. Widespread gusts of 25-40kts
by 00Z Friday. Localized gusts to 60kts along the desert slopes of
the San Bernardino County Mountains. Moderate to severe
updrafts/downdrafts possible east of the mountains. Any low cigs
should scatter out for the deserts by 15Z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Periods of stronger winds and choppy seas through Friday. The Small
Craft Advisory has been extended through Saturday morning. Southwest
winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots across the coastal
waters and seas of 5 to 8 feet this afternoon and evening. Then, a
brief lull in the winds before westerly winds with gusts 20-25 kts
pick up on Friday. Seas maintain 5 to 8 feet for the inner coastal
waters and build to 7 to 10 feet for outer coastal waters on Friday.
Much weaker winds follow Saturday and Sunday with seas trending
calmer from Saturday into Sunday.

Rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall expected Thursday evening into
early Friday morning. Embedded isolated thunderstorms are possible
which may produce hazardous conditions including gusty/erratic
winds, rough seas, lightning, and reduced visibility.

No additional hazardous marine conditions are anticipated Friday
night through Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Increasing west-southwest swell may produce elevated surf and a
high rip current risk as early as this evening. A long period
westerly swell arrives early Friday morning and generates high
surf into early Saturday morning. Surf of 4 to 7 feet expected
with sets up to 8-10 feet possible for west-facing beaches,
primarily in San Diego County. There will be a high rip current
risk and hazardous swimming conditions. A High Surf Advisory is in
effect and contains more details.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
For the LA basin and adjacent coastal slopes, heavier rain will
begin through the afternoon and early evening. Heaviest rain will
continue to push south and eastward and across central Riverside
County into San Diego County this evening through the night. The
system will continue to weaken, so rain totals will become less as
you head toward San Diego. Showers will continue at times for
through Friday, decreasing and ending from the northwest to
southeast Friday night.

Through Friday night, additional rainfall and liquid-equivalent
above the snow level is expected to range along the coast from
around 1.5 inch for Orange and northern San Diego Counties to
0.5-1 inch for southern San Diego County, to 3.5 to 5.5 inches in
the mountains with local amounts to 6 to 8 inches on the coastal
slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains. For the deserts,
most areas will see at least one tenth of an inch, closer to one
half inch near Palm Springs into the parts of the high desert.

Rain rates will generally be 0.25 to 0.50 inch west of the
mountains, with locally heavier rates over 0.75 inches in the
mountains as the heaviest rain moves through later this afternoon
and evening. There is a 15 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms
for this evening with the cold front with isolated rainfall of 1
inch per hour.

A snow level near 6500-7000 feet into this evening, will lower to
6000 to 6500 feet early Friday morning, to around 5000 to 6000
feet through the rest of Friday. Below 7000 feet, much of the
snowfall is expected from late this evening through Friday morning
with snowfall from around 3 to 6 inches at 6500 feet to as much
as 6 to 10 inches around 7500 to 8000 feet. Above 8000 to 8500
feet, there could be as much as 2 to 3 feet of snowfall from this
morning through Friday morning.

Both the San Diego River at Fashion Valley and the Santa Margarita
River at Ysidora are forecast to reach Monitor Stage late tonight
into Friday morning.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Orange County Coastal Areas-
     Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal
     Areas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-
     Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Saturday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday for San Bernardino
     County Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Friday for San Bernardino County Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Coastal Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending
     30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

&&

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...KW/CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Diego CA
350 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Flood            3 NNW Lytle Creek       34.30N 117.51W
02/13/2025                   San Bernardino     CA   Dept of Highways

            Swartout Canyon road and Lone Pine Canyon
            closed due to flooding in low lying area. 1
            inch rainfall at Cajon past 30 hours.

&&

SGX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Diego CA
351 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     Rain             Devore                  34.22N 117.40W
02/13/2025  M4.18 Inch       San Bernardino     CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DVOC1 Devore - 2 day
            rainfall.

&&

SGX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Diego CA
352 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     Rain             1 W Palomar Mountain    33.32N 116.88W
02/13/2025  M3.48 Inch       San Diego          CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PMMC1 Palomar Mountain - 2
            day rainfall.

&&

SGX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Diego CA
355 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     Debris Flow      5 N Forest Falls        34.16N 116.92W
02/13/2025                   San Bernardino     CA   Dept of Highways

            Large tree and rocks on SR 38. Angeles Oaks
            reports 2.35 inch rainfall past 36 hours.

&&

SGX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Diego CA
357 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Debris Flow      3 SW Devore             34.19N 117.43W
02/13/2025                   San Bernardino     CA   Dept of Highways

            Mud slide covering lanes. Lytle Creek Rd and
            Glen Helen Pkwy. 3.3 inches at Glen Helen
            and 4.7 inches in Lytle creek past 48 hours,
            most of it today.

&&

SGX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Diego CA
413 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     Debris Flow      5 SSW Cabazon           33.85N 116.82W
02/13/2025                   Riverside          CA   Dept of Highways

            SR 243 and Vista Grande has rocks on lanes.
            2 inches of rain past 24 hours.

&&

SGX