Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
223 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area through 8pm
  Monday. Daily afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105
  degrees through at least Monday. The Heat Advisory may need
  to be extended into Tuesday for portions of the area.

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening,
  mainly along and east of Highway 65.

- 30-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
  Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Temperatures drop
  back closer to average by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Through Monday: More of the same in the short term as an upper
high remains over the area. Daily high temperatures in the mid
90s to around 100 (highest where grass is brown) and afternoon
heat index values of 100-105 (highest over all but south-
central MO) are expected.

Will see scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
evening, mainly along and east of Hwy 65, but perhaps as far
west as I-49. MLCAPE values of 2,500-3,000 J/kg and very weak
shear will prevent severe storms from being a concern, but a
some gusts up to 50 mph are possible. Monday looks almost
identical for convective chances and hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

By midweek, the upper high over the area looks to retrograde
back to the western CONUS, putting the area into more
northwesterly flow. This will back the heat off some with
potential for some cooler air (near normal conditions) to work
into the area under the NW flow.

Conditions Tuesday are less certain given potential for a
changing airmass, but at this time the NBM keeps us warm with
highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and heat index values of
100-105. May end up needing to extend the Heat Advisory to
include Tuesday if confidence in convective outcome increases.

Tuesday through Wednesday includes 30-50% PoPs as a front moves
through. For those wanting rain, NBM probability of >=0.25" is
around 30-50% and >0.50" is 20-40%.

Behind the front, Wednesday through Saturday are forecast to
see temperatures closer to normal with highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

There is a 30% chance of showers and storms at KBBG and KSGF
this afternoon and evening. Chances fall off to around 10% at
KJLN so left any mention out of the TAF for now. Microburst
wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible under any stronger cells.
Otherwise, look for continued light winds and VFR conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181715-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and evening, mainly in areas along and east of Highway 65. Cloud
to ground lightning, heavy rain and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
will be possible with any stronger storms.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the area through 8 PM Monday.
Daily afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are
likely through at least Monday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the area through 8 PM Monday.
Daily afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are
likely through at least Monday.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected Monday
afternoon and evening and again Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

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