Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
633 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect mainly north of I-44 this evening
  through Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts in the watch area
  of 1-3 inches are expected, with locally up to 5 inches
  possible.

- There is a Marginal to Slight risk of severe thunderstorms
  this afternoon into tonight. Golf ball size hail, 60 mph
  winds, and an isolated, brief tornado threat are potential
  hazards.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible through
  the weekend, leading to additional risks for severe
  thunderstorms and flooding. The greatest potential for severe
  storms and flooding after tonight is Thursday night into
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The biggest change in the short term is an increase in severe
potential late this afternoon into this evening ahead of the
main line. RAP analysis shows 3,000-3,500 J/kg and effective
shear of 25-35 kts over the central CWA where convection has
started to initiate. We have a weather balloon going up right
now which will provide a better picture of the near term
environment. Backed surface winds (160 degree direction at KSGF
and other obs along and east of Hwy 65) make for a curved
and likely streamwise hodograph, although not elongated due to
weak to moderate shear. Think this isolated to scattered
discrete convection could become severe with golf ball size
hail, 60 mph winds, and perhaps a brief, isolated tornado
threat.

The cold front and main line will move in from the west probably
closer to 7pm in the western CWA. Given flow parallel to the
front, upscale growth is expected with bowing segments moving
toward the NE. The main severe threat with these storms will be
60 mph winds and perhaps a brief, isolated tornado in ideally
oriented bowing segments. Flooding threat is still on track in
the Flood Watch area (mainly along and NW of I-44) given ample
moisture, training storms, and other favorable environmental
factors. In the Watch area, which goes through noon on
Wednesday, forecast rainfall is 1-3 inches with locally up to 5
inches possible per 12Z HREF LPMM data.

Models have trended toward holding on to convection longer into
Wednesday evening, with a low end potential for some strong
storms, as the front lingers over the area. Moisture will still
be in place and training is possible along the front, so the
Flood Watch may need to be extended through Wednesday evening.
12Z HREF PMM data shows potential for localized 4-5 inches of
additional rainfall on Wednesday, with the highest amounts
generally along/east of Hwy 65, along/north of Hwy 60, and
along/south of I-44.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Emphasis this period is additional rainfall and severe
potential, especially Thursday night into Friday as shortwave
energy may cause an MCS and additional training convection to
impact the area. SPC has issued day 3 and 4 slight risks to
account for this.

Another episode of severe and flooding potential is Saturday
night into Sunday, but models have trended south of the area and
that remains the case. SPC's day 5 outlook is south of the CWA
as well. Still, this bears watching given the proximity.

Outside of the severe/flooding concern time frames, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each period through the long
term, but no expecting all day washouts with this activity.
Confidence decreases significantly late this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Thunderstorms were moving east into the far western CWA and
should reach JLN by 01-02z and SGF/BBG by 02-03z. We should VFR
conditions diminish to MVFR and IFR within the thunderstorms
which will continue through much of the night, although the
strongest storms will be with the initial 1-3 hours of
convection. IFR will persist into Wednesday morning and improve
to MVFR during the morning hours Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088>091-093-094-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
741 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
741 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move over southeast Kansas into
southwest and west central Missouri through the evening. These
storms will be capable of producing flooding, 60 mph wind gusts,
hail to the size of half dollars, and possibly a brief, isolated
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There will be daily shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday
through Monday. Some storms may be strong to severe Thursday
night into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed tonight over west central
Missouri into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ073-097-040000-
Bourbon KS-Crawford KS-
613 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOURBON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES
THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 613 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bronson to near Parsons. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Scott, Girard, Arma, Marmaton, Mulberry, Franklin, Bronson,
Arcadia, Uniontown, Walnut, Fulton, Redfield, Hepler, Mapleton,
Croweburg, Harding, Petersburg, Farlington, Brazilton, and
Porterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3803 9508 3804 9461 3751 9462 3738 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 247DEG 32KT 3782 9509 3740 9530

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
709 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Hermitage         37.91N 93.31W
06/03/2025                   Hickory            MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report, time estimated from radar.
            Damage to large tree limbs at the Damsite
            Campground at Pomme de Terre.

&&

PC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
710 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSW Hermitage         37.90N 93.33W
06/03/2025                   Hickory            MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report, time estimated by radar.
            Uprooted tree and damage to small tree limbs
            at Outlet Park at Pomme de Terre.

&&

PC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

MOZ067-078-040045-
Cedar MO-St. Clair MO-
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CEDAR AND ST. CLAIR
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Appleton City to 10 miles
east of Schell City to El Dorado Springs. Movement was northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake, El Dorado Springs, Osceola, Lowry City, Roscoe, Vista,
Gerster, Harper, Iconium, Tiffin, Johnson City, Taberville, Cedar
Springs, and Monegaw Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9350 3792 9351 3792 9357 3791 9357
      3786 9381 3784 9407 3815 9405 3821 9393
      3820 9356 3822 9357 3822 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 241DEG 44KT 3810 9401 3801 9392 3786 9401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
742 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

MOZ055-067-068-040130-
Benton MO-Hickory MO-St. Clair MO-
742 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HICKORY...BENTON AND EASTERN ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 742 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Lowry City to 9 miles east
of Osceola to near Humansville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pomme de Terre Lake, Truman State Park, Pomme De Terre State Park,
Truman Lake, Warsaw, Pittsburg, Lincoln, Cole Camp, Hermitage,
Weaubleau, Wheatland, Preston, Cross Timbers, Collins, Ionia,
Gerster, Palo Pinto, Quincy, Lakeview Heights, and Crockerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 9307 3822 9308 3819 9308 3819 9306
      3790 9307 3791 9318 3783 9319 3780 9337
      3784 9373 3802 9362 3820 9357 3821 9353
      3839 9351 3850 9336 3851 9329 3854 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 257DEG 37KT 3820 9357 3804 9353 3786 9364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise