Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
348 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect mainly north of I-44 this evening
  through Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts in the watch area
  of 1-3 inches are expected, with locally up to 5 inches
  possible.

- There is a Marginal to Slight risk of severe thunderstorms
  this afternoon into tonight. Golf ball size hail, 60 mph
  winds, and an isolated, brief tornado threat are potential
  hazards.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible through
  the weekend, leading to additional risks for severe
  thunderstorms and flooding. The greatest potential for severe
  storms and flooding after tonight is Thursday night into
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The biggest change in the short term is an increase in severe
potential late this afternoon into this evening ahead of the
main line. RAP analysis shows 3,000-3,500 J/kg and effective
shear of 25-35 kts over the central CWA where convection has
started to initiate. We have a weather balloon going up right
now which will provide a better picture of the near term
environment. Backed surface winds (160 degree direction at KSGF
and other obs along and east of Hwy 65) make for a curved
and likely streamwise hodograph, although not elongated due to
weak to moderate shear. Think this isolated to scattered
discrete convection could become severe with golf ball size
hail, 60 mph winds, and perhaps a brief, isolated tornado
threat.

The cold front and main line will move in from the west probably
closer to 7pm in the western CWA. Given flow parallel to the
front, upscale growth is expected with bowing segments moving
toward the NE. The main severe threat with these storms will be
60 mph winds and perhaps a brief, isolated tornado in ideally
oriented bowing segments. Flooding threat is still on track in
the Flood Watch area (mainly along and NW of I-44) given ample
moisture, training storms, and other favorable environmental
factors. In the Watch area, which goes through noon on
Wednesday, forecast rainfall is 1-3 inches with locally up to 5
inches possible per 12Z HREF LPMM data.

Models have trended toward holding on to convection longer into
Wednesday evening, with a low end potential for some strong
storms, as the front lingers over the area. Moisture will still
be in place and training is possible along the front, so the
Flood Watch may need to be extended through Wednesday evening.
12Z HREF PMM data shows potential for localized 4-5 inches of
additional rainfall on Wednesday, with the highest amounts
generally along/east of Hwy 65, along/north of Hwy 60, and
along/south of I-44.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Emphasis this period is additional rainfall and severe
potential, especially Thursday night into Friday as shortwave
energy may cause an MCS and additional training convection to
impact the area. SPC has issued day 3 and 4 slight risks to
account for this.

Another episode of severe and flooding potential is Saturday
night into Sunday, but models have trended south of the area and
that remains the case. SPC's day 5 outlook is south of the CWA
as well. Still, this bears watching given the proximity.

Outside of the severe/flooding concern time frames, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each period through the long
term, but no expecting all day washouts with this activity.
Confidence decreases significantly late this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A cold front will push into the areas this evening into tonight,
bringing increasing chances for thunderstorms and decreasing
ceiling heights. KSGF and KJLN will be most impacted through
this TAF period as the front will stall out before getting to
KBBG. KSGF and KJLN can expect IFR ceilings tonight into
Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088>091-093-094-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
236 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041945-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
236 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will develop over the area while additional storms
move in from the west late this afternoon through the overnight
hours. These storms will be capable of producing flooding, 60 mph
wind gusts, hail to the size of half dollars, and brief, isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There will be daily shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday
through Monday. Some storms may be strong to severe Thursday
night into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this evening into early
tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

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