Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Springfield, MO

675 
WWUS53 KSGF 042321
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

MOC067-091-153-215-042330-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-250405T0000Z/
Ozark MO-Douglas MO-Howell MO-Texas MO-
621 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OZARK...EASTERN
DOUGLAS...NORTHWESTERN HOWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central and southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 9238 3694 9244 3706 9228 3706 9225
      3709 9225 3728 9200 3701 9171 3679 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 231DEG 49KT 3696 9217 

$$

Nelson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
159 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
  continuing through this weekend. Increasing confidence in
  this resulting in potentially significant flooding, especially
  in south-central Missouri. Today into Saturday look to be the
  most impactful days. A Flood Watch remains in effect along
  and southeast of Interstate 44.

- Marginal(1 of 5) to Moderate(4 of 5) risk of severe storms
  today into this evening. Large hail and Damaging winds will
  be the primary hazards. There will be a conditional risk for
  tornadoes over part of south central Missouri.

- Turning colder late in the weekend into early next week and we
  have a frost/freeze potential both Sunday night and Monday
  night.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Ongoing Flash Flooding Threat:

A large swath of showers and thunderstorms continues to move NNE
from eastern Oklahoma through southwest Missouri. These storms
are being generated in a region of 925-850 mb moisture transport
and theta-e advection. Rainfall rates of 1-3" per hour have
been common beneath training storms with an attendant flash
flooding risk.

Over the next few hours, a low-level jet will primarily become
focused across southern Missouri which will keep the risk for
training storms and flash flooding going across southwestern
Missouri. Activity should begin to diminish across eastern
Oklahoma with the refocusing of the low-level jet. This should
bring an eventual lull in heavier activity across southwestern
Missouri after 3 PM. Until that time, localized rainfall amounts
of 3-6" appear likely, with the higher end of this range
resulting in a considerable flash flooding threat.

After 3 PM, we should then see additional activity developing
across northern Arkansas and overspreading south-central
Missouri. Given higher amounts of instability in this region,
this convection will have a greater tendency to develop a cold
pool. This should result in upscale growth into a broken linear
structure that slowly moves east across south-central Missouri.
Nevertheless, rainfall amounts of 1-3" appear possible across
south-central Missouri late this afternoon and early this
evening. There will be an attendant threat for flash flooding
for areas that receive amounts in the 2-3" range, especially
over areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall. Unfortunately,
there will be more heavy rainfall to come overnight into
Saturday.

Severe Threat:

A surface warm front is currently analyzed from Mena to Little
Rock to Forrest City in Arkansas. This front is lifting north
as upper level heights are beginning to fall ahead of short wave
energy emerging across the southern Plains. The 12Z HREF
indicates a roughly 50/50 chance that this front will make it as
far north as southern Oregon County. Prospects for the front to
make it that far north will be heavily dependent on northern
Arkansas remaining convection-free through early afternoon.

As mentioned above, confidence is increasing that we will see
thunderstorms initiate by mid-afternoon across northern Arkansas
with this activity growing upscale. This would result in an
attendant damaging wind threat (up to 70 mph), especially near
and south of that front. The farther north you go into south-
central Missouri, the tougher it will be for damaging winds to
reach the surface.

There are also some CAMs indicating some supercell potential out
ahead of the upscale growth. If this scenario were to occur,
hail up to 2" in diameter will be possible across south-central
Missouri into this evening, including north of the front (where
supercells would be elevated in nature).

The tornado threat will be conditional on the location of the
front. If the front can make it into Oregon County, a
supercell and QLCS tornado threat will exist into this evening
along and south of the front. Inspection of forecast hodographs
and thermodynamics in the vicinity of the front would support
the risk for a strong tornado. We will continue to track the
location of this front very closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Upper level analysis shows a large trough extending from Manitoba
down into the Baja region, with an upper jet extending from the
Southern Plains into the Great Lakes region, bringing strong
southwesterly flow aloft. A surface boundary was located south
of the jet this morning (extending from the Southern Plains
northeast into the Appalachians), with winds aloft oriented
parallel to this frontal boundary. Ahead of the trough axis and
north of the boundary, ample moisture can be observed, with
dewpoint depressions remaining below 3 degrees. Strong low-
level support from a 40-50kt low level jet will continue to lift
into southern Missouri as the boundary lifts in the form of a
warm front (before becoming stationary again this afternoon),
pumping continuous moisture into the area. The 12Z sounding
showed PWATs of 1.0 inches, with ensembles indicating an
increase of mean PWATS between 1.25 and 1.7 inches. All this
being said, this setup matches up pretty well with the Maddox
Heavy Rainfall Pattern, setting the stage for continuous rounds
of heavy rainfall and significant flooding across the area into
this weekend.

A complex movement of showers and thunderstorms was observed on
radar this morning, with the activity overspreading north throughout
the morning and early afternoon. With weak instability, some
thunderstorms ended up dropping small hail, however things were able
to remain below severe limits.

As mentioned previously, the frontal boundary has been lifting
throughout the morning in the form of a warm front. As of 1 PM, it
had lifted into central/northeast Arkansas. Questions remain
regarding how far north this front will lift this afternoon. If
the front reaches our southeast counties, storms that can
interact with the warm front and weak surface low pressure could
become more organized convection. Latest guidance shows an
organized line of storms developing as early as 3-4 PM across
northern Arkansas and overspreading into south-central MO.
Despite instability not looking too overly impressive, enough
surface based CAPE and low level shear would pose a damaging
wind threat (up to 70mph) and a large hail threat (potentially
up to 2"). There's still a threat for tornadoes, however that
remains conditional on if the front can reach our southeast
counties. Confidence levels remain medium, as the severe threat
remains conditional on the frontal set-up. Some HREF members
keep the primary severe threat to our southeast, with other
members pushing it up through our southeast counties.

Regarding the heavy rainfall and flooding concerns, showers and
thunderstorms have been training as they've been lifting into
the area oriented parallel to the 850/925mb front. Rainfall
rates of 1-3 inches per hour were observed early afternoon, with
2-4+ inches of rainfall observed in various locations since
midnight already. Through this evening, showers and
thunderstorms will bring widespread rainfall amounts of 1-4
inches along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Additional
flooding concerns will exist, with a Moderate (3/4) to High
(4/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued by WPC through this
period.

Widespread rain will continue overnight into Saturday, again with
the main area of precipitation across the eastern half of the CWA.
This is expected to bring an additional 0.5-1.0 inches of rain
over the eastern Ozarks overnight, leading to additional river
rises into flood stage, with some reaching moderate flood
stages.

On Saturday, another wave of upper level energy will push into the
area with a surface cold front sweeping through, continuing the
shower and thunderstorm activity. The greater instability looks to
remain southeast of the area, however cannot rule out a strong
thunderstorm over our far southeast counties. The heavy rainfall
potential will persist through the afternoon and evening, especially
over south central Missouri where we could see an additional
0.5-2.5 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

By Saturday night, the upper level trough pushes into the area. As
the cold front continues pushing through and exits the area by
Sunday morning, cold air will advect in behind the front, dropping
overnight lows into the 30s. With near-freezing temperatures
entering on the back side of the system, some light snow or a
rain/snow mix will be possible Saturday night. Only a dusting of
light snow with no impactful accumulations are expected.

The upper wave will shift east of the area on Sunday, bringing
precipitation chances to an end. Behind this system, northwesterly
flow aloft occurs again with surface high pressure over the
region. With the cooler airmass in place, near freezing
overnight temperatures will continue through Tuesday morning,
with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s Sunday night, and the low
to mid 30s Monday night. Light winds, clear skies, and these
near to sub freezing lows will bring high confidence for a
frost/freeze. As we get closer to this timeframe, we'll
continue assessing the need for headlines. Make sure to plan
accordingly for outdoor crops/plants, either covering them or
bringing them indoors.

By Tuesday, temperatures will get back into the 60s as more of a
zonal pattern sets up, with a  warming trend through Friday bringing
highs in the 70s by the end of next week. With upper level ridging
building into the region, dry and warm conditions are expected in
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

MVFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities will continue through
much of the period at all three terminals as heavy rain and
thunderstorms continue. Visibilities have occasionally reduced
down to 2SM and even down to 1 1/2SM (SGF and BBG) under the
heaviest rainfall/thunderstorms. Expect the rain to persist
through most of the day with a front lifting north. A break in
the rain will occur around midnight tonight, however additional
rain/storms will occur just before 12Z Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Expected rainfall amounts within the 25th and 75 percentile range
for the remainder of the event (from 2PM Friday until 2PM
Saturday):

Nevada, Warsaw: 0.5" to 1.0".

Joplin, Bolivar, Osage Beach: 0.5" to 2.0".

Springfield, Lebanon, Fort Leonard Wood, Rolla: 1.0" to 2.5"

Branson, Houston, Salem: 1.5 to 3.0"

West Plains, Eminence, Alton: 2.0" to 4.5"

High end amounts (10% chances of happening) between 2PM Friday
until 2PM Saturday:

Nevada, Warsaw: 1.25" to 2.5"

Joplin, Bolivar, Osage Beach: 1.5" to 3.5"

Springfield, Lebanon, Fort Leonard Wood, Rolla: 2.5" to 3.5"

Branson, Houston, Salem: 2.5" to 5.0"

West Plains, Eminence, Alton: 4.0" to 7.25"

All of this rain will lead to continued flooding, especially
along and southeast of the I-44 corridor where a flood watch
remains in effect. Significant river flooding is also expected
in these areas with current river forecasts based off of these
rainfall projections bring river stages in to the moderate to
near major flooding categories over the weekend.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>098-101>106.

&&

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto
HYDROLOGY...Melto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
216 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
216 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Moderate tornado risk.
  Enhanced hail risk.
  Enhanced thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Extreme excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Training showers and thunderstorms will continue through today and
tonight causing additional excessive rainfall and flash flooding
concerns along and southeast of the I-44 corridor.

As a warm front approaches the area, hail to the size of quarters
will be possible as early as 3-4PM this afternoon, persisting
through the evening. If the front can make it into south central
Missouri later this afternoon/early evening, then all modes of
severe storms will be possible south of that front including
damaging winds up to 70mph, large hail to the size of golf balls,
and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall and flooding is likely to continue on Saturday.
Storm system total amounts (from Thursday through Saturday) of at
least 3 to 6 inches, with higher amounts of 8 to 10 inches are
possible. This could continue to result in significant flooding
and flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for areas along and
southeast of Interstate 44.

Cold temperatures will move into the area late in the weekend
which could bring sub-freezing temperatures on Sunday night and
again on Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this evening into tonight for
portions of south-central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Melto

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
526 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Flash Flood      2 ESE Pleasant Hope     37.45N 93.24W
04/04/2025                   Polk               MO   Emergency Mngr

            Road closed.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
532 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     Flash Flood      4 WSW Bois d'Arc        37.24N 93.57W
04/04/2025                   Greene             MO   Amateur Radio

            water was now 5 ft and still rising.
            Flooding is both North & West of the bridge.
            North of the bridge on 35 is completely
            flooded to fr 116. West of bridge on 120 is
            flooded almost to F hwy.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
537 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNW West Plains       36.75N 91.87W
04/04/2025                   Howell             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Howell Creek is flooded out, North Porter
            Wagoner is flooded, 2 water rescues so far.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
539 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     Flood            Crane                   36.90N 93.57W
04/04/2025                   Stone              MO   Public

            Crane creek in Crane, MO flooded starting to
            run into the Crane City Park.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     Flash Flood      Willow Springs          36.99N 91.97W
04/04/2025                   Howell             MO   Emergency Mngr

            South Center street Willow Springs
            impassible.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW West Plains        36.74N 91.87W
04/04/2025                   Howell             MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Habitat for humanity in West Plains has
            about a foot of water in it.

&&

TEO