River Flood Warning 46, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms for Memorial Day
  Weekend (60-90% daily chances). Flood Watch in effect now
  through Monday night with widespread total rainfall amounts of
  2-5 inches with localized amounts up to 8 inches.

- Marginal to Slight (1-2 of 5) severe risk tonight, then again
  Sunday night, especially west of Highway 65. Main threat is
  wind and hail with up to 2 inches tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Surface analysis shows the stationary front draped NW to SE over NW
OK down to southern AR. The 850mb low-level jet has ramped up
tonight bringing warm air advection and convection has been
ongoing over the area already this evening. Convection has set
up in a line from Nevada down to West Plains and that area has
already seen around 1-3" of rain so far with more to come. Flood
Advisories and Flood Warnings will be issued as needed tonight.
Right now, there have been elevated hailers forming over NE OK
and NW AR just north of the front. CAMs (convective allowing
models) show these scattered storms filling into an MCS type
structure over the next few hours with a strong bowing segment
over the Four Corners region early this morning. Depending on
where the strongest part of the MCS sets up, areas along and
south of a Nevada to West Plains line could see damaging wind
gusts up to 70 mph where SPC has a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe
weather. The main threats with these storms early this morning
will be frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, large hail, and
damaging wind gusts.

There will be a lull in rain this afternoon and evening with
more storms firing up tonight in a similar fashion as they did
Friday night. The LLJ will work to bring in WAA overnight again
bringing in showers and thunderstorms tonight with the main
threats being large hail up to 2" and damaging wind gusts up to
70 mph and heavy rainfall as a few supercells may be involved
with tonight's system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The holiday weekend will be an active one with multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms expected due to a stationary front
that will set itself up over SW KS down to northern AR. The area
that will see the most action this weekend will primarily be
south of I-44. With the front sitting in mostly the same area
over the weekend, this will lead to training storms bringing an
influx of rain to southern MO. There is a Slight Risk (2/5) for
severe weather for McDonald, southern Barry, and southern Stone
counties Sunday and a Moderate Excessive Rainfall Outlook (3/4)
from WPC for Sunday as well. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, the atmosphere will be primed for heavy rainfall to
occur leading to flooding over the weekend especially with
saturated soils and high precipitable water values (PWATs). We
reach PWAT values near the 1.6-1.7" range this weekend which is
near the daily max and above the 90th percentile for this time
of year. Plenty of moisture coupled with a low-level jet and a
stationary front will lead to flash flooding which is why we
have a Flood Watch out from now until 7 PM Monday for rainfall
totals around 2-5" with a few locations approaching 8" over SW
MO. If you do have outdoor plans this weekend, be sure to stay
up to date with the latest forecasts as any nearby rivers or
streams will rise quickly.

As for severe weather, with the front wobbling north/south over
the Four Corners region (KS/MO/OK/AR) we'll have to monitor for
severe weather this weekend as well. There will be breaks in
the convection and there may be hours of dry time in between
rounds of rain. The main timing with these storms will be in the
evening and overnight hours as that low-level jet gets going
over eastern OK. MUCAPE will be around 1300-1500 J/kg all
weekend with 700-500mb lapse rates at 7-8 C/km with dewpoints in
the 60s over SW MO. Main threats with Sunday night's storms will
be large hail and damaging winds. With all the outdoor
activities ongoing this weekend, be sure to be weather aware for
flooding and severe weather in your area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Ceilings will bounce around through the morning due to
convection. Ceilings may get as low as IFR with visibilities
dropping to 1 to 2 SM within these heavier precipitation bands.
Main threats with these storms will be frequent lightning,
heavy rainfall, and large hail. Rain will taper off by late
morning from west to east. Expect rain to return this evening
after 00z. Winds will be out of the southeast through the
period with gusts up to 20 mph, but could be higher in and
around thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
555 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
555 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will persist through the late morning
hours. There is a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather along a
line from Fort Scott, KS down to the Shell Knob, MO area and west.
Main threats will be wind, hail, lightning, and heavy rainfall as
most storms will be elevated in nature. Hail could be as large as
2 inches within these storms. Some areas over SW MO will see 2-3"
of rain by the end of this first round.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Daily and nightly 60 to 90 percent rain and thunderstorm chances
return for Memorial Day Weekend. There is potential for more
widespread heavy rainfall amounts across the Ozarks, leading to
flooding. Increased stream and river flows are likely this
weekend.

There is also a risk for marginally severe thunderstorms during
this period. Currently, there is a Marginal (1/5) to Slight (2/5)
Risk for severe weather Sunday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed tonight for southwestern
Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Soria

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>