Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

104 
WWUS83 KSGF 180103
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
803 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105-180915-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-250318T0100Z/
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0007.250318T1700Z-250319T0100Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-Lawrence-
Christian-Douglas-Howell-McDonald-Barry-Stone-Taney-Ozark-
803 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 055 Benton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 056 Morgan, Fire Weather Zone 057 Miller, Fire Weather 
  Zone 058 Maries, Fire Weather Zone 066 Vernon, Fire Weather 
  Zone 067 St. Clair, Fire Weather Zone 068 Hickory, Fire 
  Weather Zone 069 Camden, Fire Weather Zone 070 Pulaski, Fire 
  Weather Zone 071 Phelps, Fire Weather Zone 073 Bourbon, Fire 
  Weather Zone 077 Barton, Fire Weather Zone 078 Cedar, Fire 
  Weather Zone 079 Polk, Fire Weather Zone 080 Dallas, Fire 
  Weather Zone 081 Laclede, Fire Weather Zone 082 Texas, Fire 
  Weather Zone 088 Jasper, Fire Weather Zone 089 Dade, Fire 
  Weather Zone 090 Greene, Fire Weather Zone 091 Webster, Fire 
  Weather Zone 092 Wright, Fire Weather Zone 093 Newton, Fire 
  Weather Zone 094 Lawrence, Fire Weather Zone 095 Christian, 
  Fire Weather Zone 096 Douglas, Fire Weather Zone 097 Crawford, 
  Fire Weather Zone 097 Howell, Fire Weather Zone 101 Cherokee, 
  Fire Weather Zone 101 McDonald, Fire Weather Zone 102 Barry, 
  Fire Weather Zone 103 Stone, Fire Weather Zone 104 Taney and 
  Fire Weather Zone 105 Ozark.

* TIMING...From noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 79.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

498 
WWUS83 KSGF 180736
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
236 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105-190100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0007.250318T1700Z-250319T0100Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-Lawrence-
Christian-Douglas-Howell-McDonald-Barry-Stone-Taney-Ozark-
236 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 055 Benton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 056 Morgan, Fire Weather Zone 057 Miller, Fire Weather 
  Zone 058 Maries, Fire Weather Zone 066 Vernon, Fire Weather 
  Zone 067 St. Clair, Fire Weather Zone 068 Hickory, Fire 
  Weather Zone 069 Camden, Fire Weather Zone 070 Pulaski, Fire 
  Weather Zone 071 Phelps, Fire Weather Zone 073 Bourbon, Fire 
  Weather Zone 077 Barton, Fire Weather Zone 078 Cedar, Fire 
  Weather Zone 079 Polk, Fire Weather Zone 080 Dallas, Fire 
  Weather Zone 081 Laclede, Fire Weather Zone 082 Texas, Fire 
  Weather Zone 088 Jasper, Fire Weather Zone 089 Dade, Fire 
  Weather Zone 090 Greene, Fire Weather Zone 091 Webster, Fire 
  Weather Zone 092 Wright, Fire Weather Zone 093 Newton, Fire 
  Weather Zone 094 Lawrence, Fire Weather Zone 095 Christian, 
  Fire Weather Zone 096 Douglas, Fire Weather Zone 097 Crawford, 
  Fire Weather Zone 097 Howell, Fire Weather Zone 101 Cherokee, 
  Fire Weather Zone 101 McDonald, Fire Weather Zone 102 Barry, 
  Fire Weather Zone 103 Stone, Fire Weather Zone 104 Taney and 
  Fire Weather Zone 105 Ozark.

* TIMING...From noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 to 30 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 80.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Titus

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to Significant fire danger today and Tuesday. The Red
  Flag Warning is currently in effect from 12-8 PM. Additional
  fire weather headlines may be needed for Tuesday.

- Gusts of 40-50 mph expected Tuesday with stronger gusts
  possible Tuesday night through Wednesday.

- The next round of showers will be Wednesday evening into
  Wednesday night. Light rain will change to light snow. No
  snow accumulations.

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather concerns return
  Thursday and especially Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Very dry air (MinRH 15-25%) and gusty winds (Max gusts 30-40
mph) are expected today. Dry air will be fairly uniform across
the area, but winds will be strongest west of Hwy 65 and weakest
east of Hwy 63. Those winds will be out of the SSW. This results
in widespread significant fire weather concerns, causing the
expansion of the Red Flag Warning to cover all of SW MO and SE
KS.

Otherwise look for sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s today (warmest west).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Tuesday: The pressure gradient will tighten up as leeward
cyclogenesis spins up a surface low over the western Plains.
Stronger S-SW winds (Max gusts 35-50 mph, strongest W of Hwy
65) and greater moisture (MinRH 20-35%, lowest toward central
MO) will result in solid elevated and locally significant fire
weather concerns. Depending on how fire/fuels respond today,
additional Red Flag warnings may be needed. Wind advisories are
also likely over at least the areas W of Hwy 65. Look for high
temps in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday:

Models are in good general agreement in occluding the leeward
cyclone as over NE KS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
deepening the surface low to 985-990mb as it tracks across NW
MO on Wednesday.

Winds: The most likely impact for our area will be
strong winds out the south Tuesday night, then veering out of
the west and northwest through the day following the passage of
a dry line and cold front. There is some variation with exact
low strength, track, and occlusion location which brings some
uncertainty in wind fields. NBM max gust probabilities for > 45
mph are generally 50-100% (highest over the peak of the Ozarks
plateau), making a wind advisory likely. Probabilities for gusts
> 60 mph are in the 20-40% range over the plateau. If stronger
wind fields and/or greater mixing can be realized, a High Wind
Warning may be required.

Precip: The airmass starts out Tuesday night fairly dry and a
dry line, followed closely by a cold front, move in from the
west late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before upper
level cold air moves in. This results in weak lapse rates and
limited instability for any convection that can initiate in the
dry airmass as the dry line moves in. Once the closely following
cold front moves in, there will be an inversion around 700-600
mb that will prohibit deep convection. Thus, no severe weather
is currently expected. In fact, for Tuesday night into Wednesday
afternoon, the forecast is generally dry with PoPs <= 15.

Fire weather: Moisture drops behind the morning dryline, but
quickly increases back to 50-60% over the west. Over the east,
the moisture may be slower to move in behind the dry line,
possibly allowing for values of 30-40% to linger for a few hours
east of Hwy 65 Wednesday afternoon. Combined with the strong
winds, this may lead to an area of solidly elevated fire
concerns over the east.

Wednesday night:

Very similar to the system late last week, wrap around moisture
and cooler air will move in Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night, resulting in a period of snow rain showers that will turn
to snow. Just like last Friday night, lows will be around
freezing so no accumulation is expected due to warm ground
temps.

Thursday:

Could see some elevated fire weather Thursday, but light precip
from the night before combined with high temps in the 50s should
prohibit anything too concerning even as minRH values of 20-30%
are expected. Winds will be from the NW at 10-15 mph gusting to
15-25 mph.

Friday:

Warmer Friday with highs in the 60s. Elevated to significant
fire weather is a concern given minRH values of 20-30% and max
southerly gusts of 30-40 mph.

Next weekend:

Still plenty of uncertainty with details, but a pair of
shortwaves may bring showers and thunderstorms Friday night
(~40%) and again Saturday night into Sunday (~50%). Still a long
way out with limited confidence, but will monitor for severe
potential given low end probabilities from CSU ML and CIPS
output, but nothing concerning at this time.

Look for highs in the 60s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

VFR through the period with gusty southwesterly winds up to 35
knots. These winds stay elevated through tonight and into
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

The Red Flag Warning for today was expanded to cover all areas
along and west of Highway 63.

For specific local forecasts, see our forecast webpages or the
Fire Weather Planning Forecast.

In general, today will see the most significant fire weather
conditions with very dry air and gusty winds. Worst conditions
west of Hwy 65. Expanded the Red Flag warning to cover portions
of south-central MO. Winds will be borderline or even a little
below traditional criteria over south-central MO, but RH values
will be 15-20% and fuels have been burning lately.

Tuesday will see stronger winds but higher minRH. The one
exception for the RH trend will be over areas NE of
Springfield through central MO where values will drop to 20-25%.
May need a Red Flag Warning for some areas, but at least seeing
solidly elevated fire weather conditions across the entire area.

Wednesday: Tricky forecast given a system moving through. Very
strong winds (easily gusting > 45mph , possibly > 60 mph). RH
will be lowest at 30-40% east of Hwy 65 and 40-60% elsewhere.
Little to no precipitation is expected until light rain/snow
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

Thursday: Dry (20-40 RH) but with high temps in the 50s. Sunny
skies and breezy winds. Thinking cooler temps, lighter winds,
and recent light precip the night before will prevent too many
concerns for Thursday, but may serve to dry fuels for a more
significant fire day Friday.

Friday: Elevated to significant fire concerns. Highs in the 60s,
minRH 20-30%, and southerly winds gusting to 25-40 mph
(strongest west) are in the forecast.

Next weekend: Greater moisture, lighter winds, and 40-50%
chances for rain will reduce fire concerns.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Soria
FIRE WEATHER...Soria

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
405 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
405 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Extreme fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions expected today. A
Red Flag Warning has been issued for 12-8PM for counties along
and west of Highway 63. Relative humidity values will be as low as
15-25 percent with gusty southwesterly winds up to 30 to 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions will exist
on Tuesday, then again Thursday and especially Friday.

Winds Tuesday will gust to 35 to 50 mph. Winds on Wednesday will
gust to at least 45 mph, and possibly over 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
929 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Tornado          5 N Seymour             37.22N 92.75W
03/14/2025                   Webster            MO   NWS Storm Survey

            Corrects previous tornado report from 5 N
            Seymour for width. Corrects previous tornado
            report from 5 N Seymour to add track length
            and adjust start time. NWS storm survey
            indicates an EF1 tornado with maximum wind
            speeds of 100 mph started 5 miles north of
            Diggins and tracked northeast into western
            Wright County with a path length of just
            over 17 miles. The maximum width of the
            tornado was around 400 yards. Damage
            included a roof torn off of a home, numerous
            barns destroyed, a collapsed cell phone
            tower, and snapped trees laying in a
            cyclonic pattern.

&&

TEO