Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

512 
WWUS83 KSGF 140755
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105-150200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0005.250314T1500Z-250315T0600Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-Lawrence-
Christian-Douglas-Howell-McDonald-Barry-Stone-Taney-Ozark-
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 055 Benton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 056 Morgan, Fire Weather Zone 057 Miller, Fire Weather 
  Zone 058 Maries, Fire Weather Zone 066 Vernon, Fire Weather 
  Zone 067 St. Clair, Fire Weather Zone 068 Hickory, Fire 
  Weather Zone 069 Camden, Fire Weather Zone 070 Pulaski, Fire 
  Weather Zone 071 Phelps, Fire Weather Zone 073 Bourbon, Fire 
  Weather Zone 077 Barton, Fire Weather Zone 078 Cedar, Fire 
  Weather Zone 079 Polk, Fire Weather Zone 080 Dallas, Fire 
  Weather Zone 081 Laclede, Fire Weather Zone 082 Texas, Fire 
  Weather Zone 088 Jasper, Fire Weather Zone 089 Dade, Fire 
  Weather Zone 090 Greene, Fire Weather Zone 091 Webster, Fire 
  Weather Zone 092 Wright, Fire Weather Zone 093 Newton, Fire 
  Weather Zone 094 Lawrence, Fire Weather Zone 095 Christian, 
  Fire Weather Zone 096 Douglas, Fire Weather Zone 097 Crawford, 
  Fire Weather Zone 097 Howell, Fire Weather Zone 101 Cherokee, 
  Fire Weather Zone 101 McDonald, Fire Weather Zone 102 Barry, 
  Fire Weather Zone 103 Stone, Fire Weather Zone 104 Taney and 
  Fire Weather Zone 105 Ozark.

* TIMING...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday.

* WINDS...South 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 45 to 65 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 to 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 79.

* LIGHTNING...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible,
  especially east of Highway 65 this afternoon and and evening,
  but most locations may remain dry. Outdoor burning is strongly 
  discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Titus

209 
WWUS83 KSGF 150422
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105-151100-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-250315T1100Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-Lawrence-
Christian-Douglas-Howell-McDonald-Barry-Stone-Taney-Ozark-
1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
VERY STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 055 Benton, Fire Weather 
  Zone 056 Morgan, Fire Weather Zone 057 Miller, Fire Weather 
  Zone 058 Maries, Fire Weather Zone 066 Vernon, Fire Weather 
  Zone 067 St. Clair, Fire Weather Zone 068 Hickory, Fire 
  Weather Zone 069 Camden, Fire Weather Zone 070 Pulaski, Fire 
  Weather Zone 071 Phelps, Fire Weather Zone 073 Bourbon, Fire 
  Weather Zone 077 Barton, Fire Weather Zone 078 Cedar, Fire 
  Weather Zone 079 Polk, Fire Weather Zone 080 Dallas, Fire 
  Weather Zone 081 Laclede, Fire Weather Zone 082 Texas, Fire 
  Weather Zone 088 Jasper, Fire Weather Zone 089 Dade, Fire 
  Weather Zone 090 Greene, Fire Weather Zone 091 Webster, Fire 
  Weather Zone 092 Wright, Fire Weather Zone 093 Newton, Fire 
  Weather Zone 094 Lawrence, Fire Weather Zone 095 Christian, 
  Fire Weather Zone 096 Douglas, Fire Weather Zone 097 Crawford, 
  Fire Weather Zone 097 Howell, Fire Weather Zone 101 Cherokee, 
  Fire Weather Zone 101 McDonald, Fire Weather Zone 102 Barry, 
  Fire Weather Zone 103 Stone, Fire Weather Zone 104 Taney and 
  Fire Weather Zone 105 Ozark.

* TIMING...Until 6 AM CDT Saturday.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Winds
  gradually diminishing through the night.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10-20 percent. Gradually
  increasing through the night.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 66.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Titus

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1149 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Watch in effect for southeast Kansas and far
  southwest Missouri (generally along/west of Hwy 65 corridor)
  from 10 AM to 8 PM on Friday, with southerly non-thunderstorm
  winds of 30-40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southwest and
  south-central Missouri (generally east of Hwy 65 corridor)
  from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday, with southerly non-
  thunderstorm winds 25-35 mph and gusts up to 55 mph expected.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for southeast Kansas and
  portions of southwest Missouri (along and west of the Hwy 63
  corridor) for EXTREME FIRE DANGER from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM
  Saturday due to aforementioned strong winds and relative
  humidity values in the 15-25% range.

- Thunderstorms will develop across central Missouri Friday
  evening, and severe potential increases with eastward extent,
  with highest risk of severe storms along and east of the Hwy
  63 corridor. See SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook graphic for
  further spatial detail.

- Fire weather concerns continue for the Saturday-Wednesday
  period, with Sunday-Tuesday looking like the most significant
  fire danger days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Thursday/Today:
Mostly clear skies for most of the day, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s. Climate
sites may push their record highs (low 80s) this afternoon and
record high lows (upper 50s/low 60s) overnight tonight. See
Climate section below for additional details on records. There
is a low (<15%) chance of isolated convection over central
Missouri this afternoon, which would pose a risk of some briefly
gusty winds (up to 50 mph) if storm potential is realized.
Convection will be highly dependent on moisture, which is quite
limited (SREF mean surface Tdd ~15C).

Friday:

Big headline day with half a dozen hazards as an incredibly
powerful (potentially historic) low pressure system and
associated trough aloft digs across the western CONUS and ejects
into the central Plains. As the low to our northwest occludes,
a weak low-level Pacific front will push through in the
morning, helping to push and confine moisture/moisture return
to our south and east. A dryline will build behind the initial
Pacific front and push east into our area in the late afternoon
and into the evening and overnight hours, with a trailing cold
front behind the dryline.

Wind:
A High Wind Watch has been issued for areas generally along and
west of the Highway 65 corridor in southwest Missouri into
southeast Kansas beginning at 10 AM through 8 PM Friday. Winds
associated with the synoptic system (not thunderstorms) in this
area are forecast to be sustained between 30-40 mph and gust up
to 60 mph; for context, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued
for winds of 58 mph or higher, so this area is potentially
looking at severe thunderstorm-strength winds without any
thunderstorms. NBM probabilities for greater than 60 mph winds
are 50-60%, and 30-40% chance of greater than 65 mph winds. HREF
(CAM-based) ensemble mean for gusts is 50-55 mph, with some
members showing localized gusts above 65 mph. The most
aggressive deterministic models (GFS, HRRR especially) are
showing winds in excess of 70 mph at their highest, which is an
impressive and slightly disturbing ceiling for synoptic winds.
Boundary layer mixing of deeply dry air (SREF mean momentum
transfer 42-56 kts) will bring the strongest mixing and wind
gusts along and behind the dryline as it passes. Surface
moisture trends will become important to watch as we get into
Friday for winds.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for areas generally along and
east of Highway 65, where the dryline starts to weaken and stall
out a little bit and confidence is lower in hitting High Wind
Warning criteria. Regardless, winds in this area are still
expected to be sustained at 25-35 mph and gust up to 55 mph, so
certainly on the high end of Wind Advisory criteria. The Wind
Advisory will go into effect at 10 AM Friday as well, but remain
in effect until 1 AM Saturday.

Fire:
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for southeast Kansas and
portions of southwest Missouri generally along and east of the
Highway 63 corridor starting at 10 AM Friday and continuing
until 1 AM Saturday, indicating that dangerous Fire Weather
conditions could develop. Red Flag Warning issuance is nearly
certain for Friday. See Fire Weather section below for further
detail.

Severe:
With such an incredibly dynamic system, forcing for severe
weather will be abundant in areas with enough moisture and
instability to support any thunderstorm development.
Thunderstorms will develop to our north in Iowa and nearly
immediately go linear as they develop and congeal along the
dryline into a bowing QLCS. Models show a cap with a strong hold
over our area Friday afternoon, but with such strong forcing the
cap shouldn't have much trouble being broken.

The question really lies in how far east the dryline will get
before convection fires up, and how fast convective initiation
can speed down the dryline. These two things will determine
whether convection fires up in our area or not. Generally,
evening model guidance held good consensus about convective
initiation right along the eastern fringes of our CWA,
especially west of Highway 65. The timeframe for convection will
be relatively small (4-6 hours) since storm motion is
anticipated to be incredibly fast with such strong deep layer
shear, with the most likely timeframe for storms falling
between 4 PM and 10 PM in our eastern counties. However, 06Z
CAMs have really moved away from solutions where convection
makes it this far south before the dryline is east of us as they
correct known moist biases. This would reflect an outcome where
convection remains east of our area, resulting in no severe
weather impact at all. Whether this dry trend continues on the
12Z models is TBD of course, but nonetheless introduces another
trend to keep an eye on.

If storms do initiate in our area, they would be capable of all
hazards, with significant severe winds in excess of 75 mph the
most likely threat. Tornadoes and large hail would also be in
play if any supercells become embedded in the larger QLCS
structure, but these threats become increasingly conditional in
our area based on how far west storms do form. Regardless, most
of our CWA is included in the SPC Day 2 outlook, with areas
along and east of the Highway 63 corridor in an Enhanced (level
3 of 5) Risk, increasing to a Moderate (level 4 of 5) Risk
further east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

The Weekend: A trough will be slow to move through Saturday and
Sunday which leads to lower confidence in temps and any precip
chances. Ensemble variances increase as another shot at precip
arrive Sat night with a second frontal passage. Precip chances
still remain low and less than 20 percent. High temps should be
much closer to average if the clouds and lower 850mb temps
persist.

Next Week: Overall the ensembles suggest a large ridge
developing which will increase the southerly winds and 850mb
temps therefore well above average highs look to return along
with steady winds which will only increase the fire danger
again. We are already seeing signals for significant fire danger
by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions through tonight into Friday
morning. Expect some high level clouds to move into the area
this evening into the overnight period ahead of the next
approaching system. South- southeast winds increase through
tonight, with wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots by Friday morning.
This will be accompanied by LLWS around 40 to 45 knots. As we
progress through the morning, winds become more south- southwest
and increase further to 25 to 30 knots sustained, with gusts
approaching 35 to 45 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Thursday/Today:
Similar conditions to yesterday, with light southerly winds 5-10
mph with relative humidity values in the 30-40% range.

Friday:
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for southeast Kansas and
portions of southwest Missouri (along and west of the Hwy 63
corridor) from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday. Winds will vary
based on western extent, with highest winds (sustained 30-40
mph, gusts to 60+ mph) along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Winds will still be quite strong east of Highway 65,
with sustained speeds 25-35 mph and gusts up to 55 mph.
Forecaster confidence is high (98%) in the issuance of a Red
Flag Warning over the next 24 hours. Friday has an Extreme
(level 4/4) Grassland Fire Danger Index, indicating conditions
rarely experienced in our area where any fire that starts will
spread rapidly and be almost impossible to control. Direct fire
suppression attack will likely fail, especially in heavy fuel
loads.

Additionally, our area has been included in an Elevated to
Critical (level 1/3 and level 2/3, respectively) Fire Weather
Risk Outlook by SPC, which is quite rare for our area to be
included in. The Extreme, or highest and most dangerous risk
level, is almost touching the edge of our Kansas counties, and
could potentially be included in subsequent outlook updates.

Southerly winds will ramp up quickly after the sun comes up, and
veer slightly through the day as the dryline approaches. Highest
winds will be just ahead of, along, and behind the dryline. The
ceiling for highest gusts could continue to rise, further
increasing fire danger. Relative humidity values will decrease
into the 15-25% range, with a bit of a spatial maxima (25-35%) between
the Pacific cold front and the dryline. RHs will really tank
behind the dryline, where the 15-25% RH corridor will remain
well into the overnight hours of Saturday.

As the trailing cold front catches up to the dryline early
Saturday morning, the corridor of Red Flag RHs narrows but
remains distinct before warming begins on Saturday. Areas within
this corridor may only recover to 35-45% overnight, and will
see the highest continued fire danger into Saturday. Winds
calm (comparatively) on Saturday to sustained 10-20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph, though speeds will continue decreasing
through the day as winds turn from westerly in the morning to
northwesterly by evening. Afternoon RHs drop to 30-45%.

An active fire weather pattern continues through the weekend and
into the middle of next week, with Sunday-Wednesday likely
seeing Elevated to Significant fire danger. Sunday-Tuesday will
see the highest risks, with potential for several Red Flag
Warning days in a row. Additional Fire Weather Watches will
likely be necessary in the coming days.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Record High Temperatures:

March 13:
KSGF: 82/2012
KJLN: 83/2012
KVIH: 81/2012

March 14:
KSGF: 82/1971
KJLN: 80/2002
KVIH: 83/2012
KUNO: 82/2024

March 18:
KVIH: 78/2012

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 14:
KSGF: 59/2012
KJLN: 64/2012
KUNO: 61/1990
KVIH: 60/2012

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for KSZ073-097-101.
     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.
     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     MOZ055-066>068-077>079-088>090-093-094-101-102.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
     MOZ056>058-069>071-080>083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Perez
FIRE WEATHER...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
504 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
504 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a High Wind Watch in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM on Friday for
southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri, generally along/west
of Hwy 65 corridor, with southerly non-thunderstorm winds of
30-40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph expected. A Wind Advisory will
be in effect for areas east of Highway 65 in south-central
Missouri from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday, with southerly non-
thunderstorm winds of 25-35 mph and gusts up to 55 mph expected.
Strong winds across the area may be damaging and may make driving
difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM
Saturday for southeast Kansas and portions of southwest Missouri
along and west of the Hwy 63 corridor for extreme fire danger.
Very strong winds, combined with low humidity, will create
extremely volatile conditions. Fires will spread very quickly with
spot fires common. Fire control will be extremely difficult.

Precipitation chances return Friday afternoon and evening, with a
20 to 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. The time window
for storms would likely be limited to a 4 to 6 hour window between
4 PM and 10 PM. Severe thunderstorm potential increases with
eastward extent, with the highest risk of severe storms along and
east of the Highway 63 corridor. Damaging winds would be the main
risk with this line of thunderstorms, though there is a chance of
large hail and tornadoes within any embedded supercells that may
form.

Additional elevated to significant fire weather conditions will
exist Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Camden