Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Springfield, MO

492 
WGUS73 KSGF 232026
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
326 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

MOC009-097-109-119-145-232230-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-250923T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barry MO-Jasper MO-Lawrence MO-McDonald MO-Newton MO-
326 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN BARRY, SOUTHEASTERN JASPER, SOUTHERN 
LAWRENCE, MCDONALD AND NEWTON COUNTIES...

At 326 PM CDT, Local law enforcement reported flash flooding in 
Route U at Mike's Creek in McDonald County. Between 2.5 and 4 inches 
of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Neosho, Monett, Aurora, Cassville, Pineville, Granby, Anderson, 
  Sarcoxie, Pierce City, Goodman, Purdy, Diamond, Exeter, Wheaton, 
  Verona, Lanagan, Fairview, Butterfield, Newtonia, Pioneer, 
  Freistatt, Stella, Wentworth, Stark City, Ritchey, Rocky Comfort, 
  Ridgley, Powell, Wayne, Mcdowell, Pleasant Ridge, Madry and Big 
  Sugar Creek State Park.

This includes the following low water crossings...
  Center Creek at Azalea Drive, Flat Creek at Highway U, Shoal Creek 
  at Farm Road 2110, Flat Creek at Highway C, North Indian Creek at 
  Orchid Drive, Little Sugar Creek at Skaggs Hollow Road and Big 
  Sugar Creek at Buzzard Glory Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Many flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9425 3710 9414 3709 9406 3702 9365
      3681 9369 3654 9408 3650 9414 3650 9416
      3650 9425 3650 9426 3650 9427 3666 9459
      3694 9448

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

PC

194 
WGUS73 KSGF 232212
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
512 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

MOC009-097-109-119-145-232222-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-250923T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barry MO-Jasper MO-Lawrence MO-McDonald MO-Newton MO-
512 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN BARRY, SOUTHEASTERN 
JASPER, SOUTHERN LAWRENCE, MCDONALD AND NEWTON COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT Wednesday for 
portions of southeast Kansas and Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9425 3710 9414 3709 9406 3702 9365
      3681 9369 3654 9408 3650 9414 3650 9416
      3650 9425 3650 9426 3650 9427 3666 9459
      3694 9448

$$

Soria

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of widespread heavy rainfall and flooding are forecast
  to occur across our south AND southwestern counties this
  morning into Wednesday. A Flood Watch is in effect for
  portions of the area through Wednesday morning.

- There is a Marginal risk for severe weather through this
  morning and into this afternoon, primarily south of Highway
  54, with damaging winds as the primary hazard. A Slight risk
  exists for areas along the Arkansas State line in McDonald
  and Barry Counties.

- Seasonal temperatures and lingering rain chances will occur
  midweek before drier, more pleasant conditions arrive into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

The region remains under the influence of a rather active upper
level weather pattern. An upper low over the Great Lakes and
it's attendant trough moved through the region late last night
and was approaching the Ohio River Valley region early this
morning. At the same time another upper low is digging into the
Four Corners region with an attendant surface low moving across
the central plains on the eastern side of the positively tilted
trough. As the surface low moves east associated with an upper
level short wave on the eastern side of the upper trough, it has
developed an MCS which was making its way across southern
Kansas and Northern Oklahoma. Deep southerly flow was aiding in
providing ample moisture for the system and despite the time of
day, MUCAPE values in and ahead of the MCS were in the 1800 to
2500 j/kg range as noted by CAMS. AS the low/cold front pushes
the MCS east the 40-50kt LLJ over KS/OK will nose into
southwestern Missouri around sunrise.

CAMs have been insistent in moving this storm system into and
through the Ozarks region this morning through this evening.
This may occur with several rounds of trailing showers/storms
into Wednesday. In advance of the system moving into the
region, a warm front is expected to lift into the Ozarks. Where
this warm front ultimately ends up is unsure, but heavy
rainfall is likely to occur along and south of the front, which
could lead to a flooding threat primarily over areas in our
south/southwest, generally along and south of Highway 54.

Ensemble guidance, 24-hour HREF LPMM (Local probability matched
mean - which shows reasonable localized high-end amounts) shows
widespread 0.75"-1.25", with far southwest MO between 1.5"-3"
and localized pockets between 5-6". With soil moistures in the
60-80%+ range for some areas which did receive rainfall over
the weekend. area after already receiving 2-5" (localized up to
8- 9") over the weekend. Because of this a Flood Watch remains
in effect for our southern/southwest counties through Wednesday
morning to account for the flooding threat. As previously
mentioned, drought conditions will likely be improving after the
sufficient rainfall.

In additions to the flood potential the Storm Prediction Center
has placed much off the Ozarks in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5)
for severe thunderstorms for areas along and south of Highway 54
with a small area of Slight Risk (2 out of 5) across southern
McDonald and Barry Counties.

The primary hazard will be damaging winds as the frontal
boundary pushes thunderstorms into the area. The best timing
for severe storms should be during the early afternoon hours,
with the potential for some lingering severe chances into the
late afternoon/early evening. Dewpoints into the upper 60s/low
70s, instability between 1800-2500 J/kg, 0-6km shear from
25-30kts, and ample lift will all support more of an organized
severe threat. Though the better threat looks to be more south
of the area over Oklahoma/Arkansas. There's a low chance (5%)
for an isolated tornado, with HREF 4-hr max updraft helicity
tracks highlighting this potential over the very far southwest
CWA before pushing south into Arkansas. The more likely hazards
are expected to be large hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall.

A few CAMS also suggest some free convection showers developing
in the warm sector ahead of the system this morning. Depending
on the coverage of these showers, may have some impact on the
later convection.

With all the above mentions ingredients, by 00z the LLJ will be
over the region and the Ozarks will also be in the center of a
coupled upper level jet. This would provide ample lift for
convection to continue but will also help drag the strongest
portions to the northeast overnight tonight.

The upper level trough will make its way though the region then
during the day Wednesday with ongoing additional showers and
scattered storms.This will also usher in a cooler, more
seasonable airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Despite a few lingering isolated showers early Thursday morning
(<20%), Thursday should be mostly dry with more seasonable
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. As the aforementioned
upper level trough pushes east away from the area, an upper
level ridging pattern will begin to set up, with mid level
heights rising towards the end of the week and into the weekend.
This will allow for a period of dry, pleasant, and more
seasonable weather, with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in
the 50s through the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Flight conditions will be impacted by a storm system that is
moving into the area this morning. As storms move into the area
from the west, airfields can expect ceilings and visibilities
to fall to MVFR to IFR conditions with potentially significant
winds gusts in excess of 50mph and very heavy rainfall. The slow
movement of the system will allow for a prolonged period of
storms and MVFR/IFR flight conditions which should last through
a significant portion of the forecast period.

Where storms occur, visibilities may fall to IFR or LIFR
conditions with erratic and gusty surface winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ088-093>097-
     101>105.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
306 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240815-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
306 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will move into the area today.
Rainfall may be heavy at times. A Flood Watch has been issued
until 7 AM on Wednesday across portions of southern Missouri and
southeast Kansas.

There is a Marginal to Slight risk for severe storms roughly
along and south of Highway 54 today. Hail up to the size of
quarters and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, but an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out across extreme southwest
Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional storms will occur on Wednesday into early Thursday
morning.

Cooler temperatures and dry weather is then expected for the end
of the week into the coming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch