Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
  evening. Better chances for late tonight through Friday
  morning.

- Additional scattered thunderstorms will be possible on
  Saturday and Sunday.

- More vigorous storms will be possible early next week as a
  stronger system moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions:  Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show broad southwesterly flow aloft across
the CONUS. Shortwaves were evident within this flow over
Oklahoma, Kansas into Nebraska, Idaho and Arizona. A large scale
trough was still off the west coast. Convection was occurring
across the plains with the embedded shortwaves and some widely
scattered convection was develop over the eastern Ozarks into
the lower MS valley. Temperatures early this afternoon were
ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area and dew
points have creeped up into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Rest of this afternoon and tonight: More instability based
convection over the eastern Ozarks will linger through the
afternoon and will remain widely scattered, pulse-like
convection. Shortwave energy and a surface front will begin to
move into the area later in the evening/overnight period and we
should see pops increase in our west late tonight. While there
might be a few stronger storms, we are not expecting any
organized severe storms at this time.

Friday into Friday night: The bulk of the rain chances will be
during the morning hours on Friday, with some lingering
convection possible during the afternoon in the east and south
on Friday evening as the front and upper wave continue pushing
through the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Saturday - Sunday: Surface high pressure will move in behind the
cold front, shifting into the OH valley late Saturday into
Saturday night. Most of the day Saturday should remain dry, but
will start to see moisture creep back into our southwestern CWA
late in the day, with a return of southerly low level flow
behind the high pressure system. While most areas on Saturday
will remain dry, areas in the southwest CWA may have some low
pops(10-40%) develop during the afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorm chances will continue into Saturday night and
Sunday, with best chances(30-60%) on Sunday west of highway 65.

Strong to severe storms Monday - Tuesday: The system currently
off the west coast will begin to push inland over the weekend
and into the plains on Monday. The bulk of the upper level
energy and surface low will remain north of the area, however a
frontal boundary will start to push into the area Monday night,
continuing into Tuesday with the front moving into the area.

Unsettled weather continues into Wednesday: The upper level low
to our southwest will begin to lift northeast into the area
continuing the chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Heavy rain and flooding potential over the 7 day period: While
the overall QPF has come down from today through Sunday over the
area, there will be more widespread heavy rain chances as the
organized system moves into the area with the surface front and
upper level low pressure system Monday through the middle of
next week. There may be some localized flooding with repeat
storms through the weekend, but the better chances for excessive
rainfall look to occur next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Latest radar imagery depicts scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the area, with more widespread light rain across the SW
corner of Missouri moving NE. These will continue over the next
couple of hours before slowly decreasing in coverage between
02-07Z. There will then be a lull as winds shift from the south
to the northwest before redevelopment of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms become possible again between 18-24Z.
The same sort of coverage is expected then as there is now on
current radar trends with a low chance (30%) for a thunderstorm
to directly impact a TAF site.

Additionally, there is a moderate chance (50-70%) for JLN and
BBG to reach MVFR between 11-17Z, with a lower chance (30-50%)
in SGF during the same time period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Price

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
716 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-260030-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
716 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue through the evening into the overnight. These will
transition to light rain from west to east overnight, slowly
fading away by morning. There is very low confidence (10-20%) in
a decaying thunderstorm complex moving in Friday morning.
Lightning and downpours will be the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and storms will be possible through the
weekend. Areas in the south and west that see the most rain may
be at risk for localized flooding. Strong to severe storms will be
possible late Monday into Tuesday as a strong frontal system
moves through. An upper level system will continue thunderstorm
chances into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

MOZ104-250000-
Taney MO-
625 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TANEY COUNTY
THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 624 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Self, or 12 miles south of Forsyth, moving northeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bull Shoals Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Bull Shoals Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 9314 3667 9296 3650 9284 3650 9312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 233DEG 9KT 3651 9306

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Price

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
959 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NNE Hartshorn         37.32N 91.65W
04/20/2025                   Texas              MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Delayed report of hundreds of trees uprooted
            and downed along the Texas/Shannon County
            line in the conservation area.

&&

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