Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
817 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will remain very warm and muggy with a daily
threat of showers and thunderstorms. Greatest concentration of
storms today is expected along and east of the Blue Ridge where
opportunity for localized flooding is possible due to the storms
being very rain efficient. Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour
are possible, and this may lead to flooding if a storm lingers over
an area for even a short amount of time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

Ongoing storms across the area will continue for the next
several hours. Very heavy rainfall, resulting in areas of Flash
Flooding will be the primary threat. Should see storm intensity
an coverage subside by midnight to just a few isolated downpours
overnight. Likely to see fog again through the early morning
hours, especially across locations that received rain today.

Discussion as of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) More showers this afternoon and evening with potential for
flash flooding and severe weather again

2) A Flood Watch is in effect from 2PM-Midnight for counties mainly
east of the Blue Ridge.

With increased CAPE as diurnal heating continues to intensify,
convection has begun to kick off, especially along the
ridgelines where orographic effects aid the initial instability.
A light mean wind will cause most storms to drift almost
aimlessly with a slow speed, and new storms will largely be
outflow driven. PWATs today are abnormally high, much like
recent afternoons as well, ranging from 1.5-2" where highest
amounts are in the Piedmont. Rain showers and storms will be
efficient rain producers, and rates in excess of 2"/hr would not
be surprising. Inside of a slow moving cell, flash flooding
could begin quickly, especially in urban areas or areas which
have saturated soils (which is most of the forecast area east of
the Blue Ridge). A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the
afternoon through tonight to address these hydrologic concerns
east of the Blue Ridge.

Temperatures are generally above normal, but maximum
temperatures this afternoon will be dependent upon the
occurrence of storms and the length of time spent underneath
those storms. Blocking insolation and cool downdrafts in the
core of a cell will cause localized cooling.

Wednesday's forecast will effectively be a persistence forecast,
as the stationary boundary to our north remains and the air mass
overhead will be high in moisture and above normal in
temperatures. Another afternoon of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with the potential for high rain rates is likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 102 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for daily chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

2) Conditions will stay warm and humid throughout the remainder of
this work week.

An upper level ridge off the southeast coast will keep warm and
humid conditions in the area through the period. High temperatures
will range in the 80s across the mountains to upper 80s to lower 90s
in the foothills and piedmont. Dew points will run in the mid 60s to
lower 70s west of the Blue Ridge and in the low to mid 70s east.
With the high humidity and light winds, temperatures will feel 3F-8F
warmer than they actual are, especially in the afternoon.

The combination of heat and moisture will also spark scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. PWATs are forecast to be in the
1.50 to 2.00 inch range. Spotty thunderstorms could produce 1-2
inches of rain in less than an hour. Some isolated slow-moving
storms may also drop 3+ inches of rain in an hour or two. With a wet
weather pattern the last several days, there will likely remain a
Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding each day along and east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 124 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for chances of showers and thunderstorms
to continue every afternoon.

2) Little change in the air mass is anticipated during the weekend
and into early next week.

The upper ridge in the west Atlantic will drift to the east but will
continue to keep its warm and humid influence on the region. The
threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also continue
into next week. A cold front is expected to approach the area early
next week but may stall to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Tuesday...

Generally VFR outside of any thunderstorm this evening through
midnight. Occasional sub-VFR from storms will be possible with
the primary threat being very heavy rainfall. Storms will
gradually decrease, giving way to fog development through the
early morning hours. A few hours of sub-VFR possible in areas
with fog through daybreak, along with low clouds less the 3kft.
Clouds will lift through the morning and all terminals should
return to VFR through tomorrow evening. Storm chances tomorrow
will be less, but any storm will be capable of brief instances
of sub-VFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The overall pattern remains stagnant for the remainder of this
week with a warm and humid air mass providing daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms and an overnight potential
for patchy fog. In general, conditions expected to be VFR for
most of this week with the exceptions being the aforementioned
afternoon storms and overnight fog which will result in tempo
sub-vfr conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ022>024-032>035-
     043>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...BMG/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG/VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
238 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-161845-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
238 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Slow moving thunderstorms may lead to flooding this afternoon and
evening. Rain rates up to 4 inches in an hour are possible. There is
a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall
from thunderstorms Wednesday through the upcoming weekend...mainly
due to slow moving afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-161845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
238 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Storms this afternoon and evening may produce localized flooding
from excess heavy rain. The greatest threat is east of the
Appalachian divide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall
from thunderstorms Wednesday through the upcoming weekend...mainly
due to slow moving afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
747 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     Flash Flood      Appomattox              37.36N 78.82W
07/15/2025                   Appomattox         VA   911 Call Center

            Water Rescue reported near intersection of
            Raider Cir and Confederate Blvd.

&&

CDG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
757 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     Flash Flood      Rocky Mount             37.00N 79.88W
07/15/2025                   Franklin           VA   911 Call Center

            Tanyard Road Flooded near Eagle Plaza.

&&

CDG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
759 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     Flash Flood      2 NE Rocky Mount        37.02N 79.86W
07/15/2025                   Franklin           VA   911 Call Center

            Road flooded at intersection of Old Franklin
            Turnpike and School Board Road.

&&

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCZ004-005-VAZ032-043-160045-
Stokes NC-Rockingham NC-Henry VA-Patrick VA-
821 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT STOKES...WESTERN
ROCKINGHAM...WESTERN HENRY AND SOUTHEASTERN PATRICK COUNTIES AND THE
CITY OF MARTINSVILLE THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

At 821 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Critz to Germanton.
Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Martinsville...
Mayodan...
Madison...
Walnut Cove...
Stuart...
Stoneville...
and Danbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8043 3674 8036 3679 7981 3625 7992
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 273DEG 14KT 3666 8016 3628 8023

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS