Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
227 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large, slow moving low pressure system will stall over the Ohio
Valley through Monday. This system will push a cold front through
the area Sunday and Monday, resulting in multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will stay above normal for
the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 213 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Heavy rain at times from storms and potential for isolated severe
storms mainly east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon/evening.

2) Expect showers overnight, then lessening in coverage Sunday, with
best lift to north.

Hindrance of cloud cover has slowed the destabilizing airmass
this afternoon. Still a few storms have developed, with SBCAPEs
in the 500-1000 J/kg range, higher in the piedmont. Latest
trends in convective models/satellite and mesoanalysis indicate
that most strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be east of
the Blue Ridge, and moreso along/east of US 29 from Lynchburg to
Danville to Reidsville. Still cannot rule out an isolated
strong/severe storm along/west of the Blue Ridge.

Looking at greatest coverage of showers to occur this evening into
overnight coincident with best upper support/divergence in relation
to the upper low over southern KY. As this upper low starts to pivot
north into northern KY/southern Ohio Sunday, the upper forcing is
weaker across our area, as main upper support turns north into the
mid-Atlantic. Still plenty of moisture and pieces of shortwaves
along with front moving across should bring scattered to numerous
showers Sunday, with best coverage along the I-64 corridor, then
southeast toward Lynchburg and Danville.

As for flooding, antecedent conditions have been dry, so not too
overly concerned with flash flooding. However, with higher moisture
content in this airmass and potential for repeated rounds of
showers/thunderstorms, would not be surprise for some localized
flooding in urban areas and low water areas, but not enough
confidence or coverage, so no watch for flooding.

Lows tonight to range from the lower 60s in the Piedmont to mid 50s
west. Sunday will be mild to warm with mid 70s east to mid to upper
60s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Shower and thunderstorm chances Monday then becoming more limited
on Tuesday.

In the wake of the departing frontal occlusion to the east the
driving force, or center of the large upper cutoff low, lingers to
our west with persistent south to SW flow aloft into the start of
the work week. This leaves the area susceptible to any vort lobes
traversing the low and open to PVA-induced rounds of convection.
Guidance is in fairly good agreement with this low drifting
northward by Tuesday and coming into phase with another longwave
trough pushing across southern Canada into New England. Thus, have
limited pops Tuesday to just a western and northern tier of the CWA.

Progged instability looks to have some lower end amounts with
daytime heating Monday and have thunder potential though even more
limited for Tuesday so just have shower mention.

Temps look to be right around climo norms for the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Possible other rounds of precip each day with uncertainty greater
on Friday.

We get a brief reprieve following the aforementioned cutoff low and
a thin swath of drier air before the next moisture axis advects in
from the southwest on Wednesday as a piece of energy breaks off from
yet another upper low. The center of this feature begins to make its
way slowly SEWD from the central plains into the northern Gulf
states by the end of the week and then potentially stagnates into
the weekend. There is uncertainty how far north the moisture field
extends as it could be battling a ridge coming in from the Great
Lakes for Friday following a possible Thursday cold front. Will be
maintaining pops for mostly scattered showers each day though trends
will need to be monitored.

Afternoon max temps look to be above normal both Wednesday and
Thursday then cooler to near normal for Friday behind a possible
front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 123 PM EDT Saturday...

Have mainly VFR this afternoon but showers/storms will likely
bring in cigs/vsbys of IFR to MVFR at most sites. South to
southwest winds will be gusty at times, and a few strong storms
are possible mainly east of a line from ROA-INT.

Showers and cloudy skies likely into the overnight as slow
moving upper low propagates across the Ohio Valley. Expect sub-
VFR for most, possibly IFR at BLF/LWB/BCB and MVFR east though
IFR possible.

Confidence is average on the above conditions.

Beyond tonight, showers will likely persist Sunday morning
mainly north of a line from BLF-DAN. Anticipate sub-VFR, except
some VFR improvement possible around ROA-DAN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Additional chances of precipitation are likely into Tuesday,
bringing sub- VFR conditions to parts of the area, though
forecast confidence decreases by Tuesday.

This is low confidence pattern due to the stalled upper low over
the Ohio Valley. Most of the area will remain dry, but
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible each day Wed-
Thu.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...AMS/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
444 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-010-058-059-WVZ042-043-508-040845-
Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-
Western Greenbrier-
444 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon into late evening. A couple of storms will be capable of
producing locally damaging winds and large hail. There is also a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall with these storms
that could result in localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few storms on Sunday afternoon and evening may be capable of
producing large hail, localized damaging winds, and heavy rain that
could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ002>006-019-020-VAZ011>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-WVZ044-507-
040845-
Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-
444 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon into late evening. Some storms will be capable of producing
locally damaging winds and large hail. There is also a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall with these storms that could
result in localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few storms on Sunday afternoon and evening may be capable of
producing large hail, localized damaging winds, and heavy rain that
could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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