Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1054 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front today will bring widespread showers
and thunderstorms to the area today, with the threat for severe
wind and hail expected with the strongest storms that develop.
In the wake of this cold front, dry weather returns to the
region, with a gradual warm up through the weekend to well above
average temperatures forecast across the region with an upper
level ridge building over the eastern conus through next week.
Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return by
mid-week next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1040 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Slight Risk for severe storms Today.

Little need for alterations to the forecast this morning. The
calm before the storm, so to speak, with not much going on this
morning before expected thunderstorms this afternoon/evening
associated with fropa. High CAPE values and humidity will make
for a storm-ready environment. Will likely be performing an
additional balloon release in the early afternoon to capture the
environment more accurately.

From the previous discussion...

The axis of an upper level trough is currently centered over
southern Illinois and western Kentucky. This upper level trough
is expected to push east throughout the day today. An associated
cold front is currently analyzed across Indiana and western
Kentucky, and will similarly push east throughout the day, which
combined with forcing for ascent aloft due to the aforementioned
upper level trough will lead to widespread severe thunderstorms
development during the early afternoon hours. As storms
develop, the environment is expected to be favorable for
production of severe thunderstorms that will be able to produce
strong damaging wind gusts and hail. There is a small tornado
threat predominantly north of the I-64 corridor in Virginia.
With SBCAPE values surging to around 1500-2000 J/Kg thanks to
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area combined
with deep layer shear in the 0-6km layer around 30 knots, storm
mode will favor multicellular clusters and a few supercell
thunderstorms across the area. DCAPE values similarly can't be
overlooked, with values in the 800-1000 J/Kg range, which will
only increase the severe wind threat exponentially across the
area. This will lead to possible downed trees and power poles,
which can cause power outages. Not only will winds be strong
with these thunderstorms, but the potential for severe hail is
also expected given these aforementioned instability and bulk
shear levels. Fortunately, widespread flash flooding potential
is not expected; however, localized flash flooding can't be
ruled out with PWATs ahead of this cold front remaining in the
1.5-1.8 inch range. This could lead to heavy rain rates in the
1-3 inch per our range leading to rapid increases on local
streams and ponding of water. Storm motion looks to be
progressive, which will fortunately lower the overall flash
flood threat.

Outside of the severe weather threat today, temperatures will
generally climb to near 90 east of the Blue Ridge, and into the
mid 70s to low 80s west of the Blue Ridge. Lows tonight post
cold frontal passage look to drop into the low to mid 60s east
of the Blue Ridge, and upper 50s to low 60s west of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

 - Quiet, dry and hot weather expected this weekend.

Surface high pressure will settle over the area Friday. Under
abundant sunshine, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to
upper 80s. These temperatures are 2F-4F warmer than normal. There
will be a noticeable drop in relative humidities with dew points in
the 50s.

Over the weekend, an upper level ridge will move from the
Mississippi Valley to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This dome of
high pressure will have temperatures running 8F-12F warmer than
normal. Dew points will also increase into the 60s with afternoon
heat indices ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Point:

 - Excessive Heat headline likely

An upper level ridge will be centered over the OH/TN Valleys Monday
and Tuesday, then drifts over VA/NC Tuesday into Wednesday. High
temperatures will run 10F-15F warmer than normal under this heat
dome. With temperatures peaking from the upper 80s to upper 90s and
dew points creeping up into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the
area, heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s across the
mountains and above 100F in the foothills and Piedmont each
afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period;
however, with an approaching/passing cold front today may bring
brief periods of MVFR to LIFR restrictions in and around shower
and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening at all
terminals. Southwest winds will also pick up during the late
morning hours to all terminals, with gusts of 20-25 knots
expected until the late evening hours. Winds behind the frontal
passage will transition to a more westerly/southwesterly flow;
however, gusts should diminish around 00 UTC. With westerly
winds expected post frontal, and some lingering moisture in the
low and mid levels, some MVFR CIGs and VSBYs look to develop at
BLF and LWB around 06 UTC. VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF sites through the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will build across the region Friday and through
the weekend, so anticipating mainly VFR conditions from Friday
through Monday, outside any late night and early morning
mountain valley fog at LWB/BCB. The next rain chances look to
return late Tuesday, which could return restrictions back to the
area.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
152 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ007-009>016-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-201800-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
152 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather is forecast for
Thursday with the potential for strong winds and hail.

A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall is forecast
for Thursday with the potential for localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-020-VAZ017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-201800-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Floyd-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
152 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
127 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Lewisburg         37.82N 80.44W
06/19/2025                   Greenbrier         WV   911 Call Center

            911 Call Center in Greenbrier County, WV
            reported a tree down, blocking the roadway
            near the intersection of Grand Avenue and
            Fairview Road near Lewisburg.

&&

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
132 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VAZ020-024-191800-
Bath VA-Rockbridge VA-
132 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN ROCKBRIDGE AND EASTERN BATH COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

At 131 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Warm Springs, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Goshen...
Millboro...
Warm Springs...
Nimrod Hall...
Bells Valley...
Yost...
and Burnsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 7951 3817 7952 3815 7953 3817 7949
      3817 7944 3815 7944 3809 7949 3799 7931
      3788 7974 3814 7982 3820 7958
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 255DEG 45KT 3806 7968

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SH

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