Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
307 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Pattern stays stagnant through the weekend with daily storm
chances and humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Flood Watch expanded to the I-81 corridor into the NC
foothills. Watch continues east of the Blue Ridge.

2) Some storms this afternoon and evening may be strong to
severe, with damaging winds and isolated large hail the main
threats.

3) Storms again Thursday, possibly severe and with torrential
rains.

Radar trends pointing to training storms with torrential rains,
so have opted to expand the flood watch west to the I-81
corridor south into the Surry County area of NC.

Previous discussion...

Thunderstorms developing earlier than forecast across the
mountains, with some multi-cellular clusters and storm motion
northeast at 10-12kts. Approaching shortwave from the west
combined with SBCAPEs of 2500-3500 J/kg will set the stage for
strong to severe storms through evening. A watch may be issued
soon for parts of the area.

From SPC: Latest GOES IR and MRMS imagery all show steady
intensification of convection as well as a gradual increase in
convective coverage across the central Appalachians. This trend is
expected to continue over the next several hours amid continued
daytime heating/destabilization and as convection approaches the
apex of a buoyancy axis extending from the Carolinas into southern
PA. Additionally, moderate mid-level flow associated with a
low-amplitude upper disturbance is supporting adequate deep-layer
shear (around 30 knots) for organized convection, including a couple
of supercells. The expectation over the next several hours is that a
mix of discrete cells and clusters will gradually grow upscale into
one or more short, but organized, line segments given persistent
broad-scale ascent, limited capping, and storm motions largely
aligned with the zone of initiation.

Flooding is also a concern with slow movement and training and
current watch already has this in hand, though cannot rule out
isolated flooding in the mountains as well. PWATs running 1.5 to
2.0 inches will translate to 2-4"/hr rates in stronger storms.
Areas impacted by Chantal earlier in the week will definitely
need to watch carefully for flooding. We still have road
closures in southern Halifax County VA due to water being
released by Hyco Lake Dam.

Storms could linger right past midnight in the east. Thursday
almost looks like a repeat though the next wave may shift across
faster than whats occurring today and looks like the Piedmont
may have more coverage than the mountains, or at least more
stronger convection.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for storms/flooding
threat this afternoon, and moderate on coverage Thursday.

Storms/cloud cover will keep high temps temperated somewhat but
lows will be muggy in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Daily pattern of showers and thunderstorms continue

2) Flood concerns remain into the weekend

Weather activity for the rest of the week is pretty similar to the
past several days with the exception of a lower severe threat.
Another frontal system approaches but stalls before entering the
region, which means additional days of warm and moist air. Dew
points will continue to be in the mid-60s and mid-70s while high
temperatures will be around the upper 70s to upper 80s. Winds
aloft get weaker and relatively more zonal as the overall
westerly flow is well to our north and the nearest ridge will be
over Florida. This ridge, however, will gradually move north
and move westward towards Louisiana. The winds above the Mid-
Atlantic will still pass several shortwaves trough the area and
bring daily chances of thunderstorms and showers. Wind shear is
practically absent which will place a strong cap on any severe
weather potential.

Flooding, however, will still be a concern. While future flood
threats will be partially dependent on how much rain falls
leading up to this part of the forecast, additional rainfall
chances raises the risk of flooding into the weekend. The
Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of Excessive
Rainfall for Friday to account for this risk. PWATs are forecast
to be between 1.25-1.75" which would be closer to
climatological averages and still enough to produce heavy
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 134 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Daily pattern of thunderstorms continues

An upper level ridge over the Deep South will slowly make its way
westward next week. There is a signal of a cold front that may
actually move through the area to provide a brief break in this heat
and humid weather, but confidence is currently low on its potential
passage and impact. Model guidance suggests even with the frontal
passage, hot and moist airmass would quickly recover into the area.
This means the daily opportunities for rain and thunderstorms will
continue into next week. Dew points, generally, will stay between
the mid-60s to mid-70s and high temperatures will likely still be in
the upper 70s to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Storms will likely impact most if not terminals this afternoon,
lingering this evening east of the Blue Ridge. Will see MVFR or
lower in storms, otherwise VFR. Some storms may bring strong
winds as well.

Should see fog/low clouds again late tonight, for most areas,
higher probability in the mountains.

Return to VFR by 14z Thu with storms after 18z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The forecast continues in a typical summertime weather pattern
with daily chance of showers/storms during the peak heating
hours each day through the weekend. Morning fog will also be
possible each day, especially at LWB and BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ012>020-
     022>024-032.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ033>035-043>047-058-
     059.
NC...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ003.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SH/WP

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