Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
708 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches the region on Saturday, with another
round of scattered storms. The cold front looks to stall just
north of the area, which will keep much of the region under the
influence of the warm and humid airmass across the southeast.
This will keep the chances for daily showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the early to middle of next week until
a much stronger cold front looks to push through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Slow moving widely scattered storms may bring localized
flooding and damaging winds this evening mainly north of U.S.
460 and the Roanoke River east I-81.

2) The area will continue to remain hot and humid across the
area Saturday, with another round of scattered storms.

Starting to see a ramp up in convection from the Alleghanys
southeast to the Roanoke Valley and into southside VA just
southwest of a convergent boundary per mesoanalysis. Storm
motion remains slow and will have to watch for localized flash
flooding. The current watch will remain as is for now.

Previous discussion...

The surface high pressure that is leading to a backdoor front
that is currently draped across the Virginia Piedmont should
lift north tonight as a warm front as the surface high pressure
progresses east into the Atlantic and losses influence over the
region. As this happens a shortwave trough and associated
surface low pressure system is expected to push across
southeastern Canada during the day on Saturday. The associated
cold front is forecast to be draped across western New York and
into the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. While this will
predominantly keep most of the precipitation well to the north
and west of the region, there will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms along the eastern edge of the Blue Ridge and
points east into the Piedmont on Saturday. With the repeated
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the area, these
storms will continue to lead to a localized flash flood threat.
This will be especially true given storm motions will continue
to be on the slow side of around 5-15 knots.

High temperatures will climb into the low 90s across the
Piedmont, and low to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

 - Hot and humid through the weekend, with daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

A cold front is expected to stall along the Mason-Dixon line on
Sunday, then return northward as a warm front on Monday. With the
area remaining in the warm sector, hot and humid conditions will
continue along with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered storms each afternoon will be disorganized, but a few may
become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging wind
gusts and localize flooding.

High temperatures each afternoon will peak in the 80s across the
mountains to the low to mid 90s in the foothills and Piedmont. Dew
points will continue to run high, ranging from the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Slightly cooler and drier Wednesday and Thursday.

A cold front will move from the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning to the
VA/NC coast Wednesday morning. This front will bring an organized
line of convection across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Dry and cooler high pressure will follow the frontal passage
Wednesday and Thursday. Another front will slide across the region
Friday, but with limited moisture, showers and thunderstorms will be
sub-severe.

High temperatures will ranging in the 80s Tuesday, then cool down a
couple of degrees on Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually warm
each day, ending the workweek in the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...

Scattered storms may impact ROA/LYH/DAN/BCB this evening but
most of the period into midday tomorrow will be dry. Outside of
storms expect VFR. Stratus/fog will be possible again tonight
where it rained and across the river valleys. LIFR at LWB
appears likely and could see MVFR to IFR at the other terminals,
both vsby and cigs.

Any fog and low clouds will erode by 12-15z Saturday slowest at
LWB. Storms will again fire up by 17-18z, mainly in the
mountains so have VCTS in the afternoon at BLF/LWB/BCB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next
week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog. A
front tracking in by Tuesday will bring a better coverage of
storms and better chance of sub-VFR. This front should lead to
VFR conditions through the end of next week outside of any river
valley fog that may develop near BCB and LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ011-013-014-
     018>020-022>024-033>035-045-046.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ043-044-507-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
211 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-015>017-032-043-044-047-058-
059-WVZ042-281815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-
Henry-Pittsylvania-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-
211 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening. The main
threat will be damaging winds. Storms will also be capable of heavy
rain, leading to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong to severe storms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. The
main threat will be damaging winds. Storms will also be capable of
heavy rain, leading to localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ011-013-014-018>020-022>024-033>035-045-046-WVZ043-044-507-508-
281815-
Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
211 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening. The main
threat will be damaging winds. Storms will also be capable of heavy
rain, leading to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong to severe storms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. The
main threat will be damaging winds. Storms will also be capable of
heavy rain, leading to localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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