Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
725 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate the area for the next
several days resulting in hot and humid conditions, but will
gradually weaken. As it does so, afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will increase in coverage into the weekend. A
cold front may cross the area early next week bringing in
slightly cooler and drier air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Will let heat headlines expire at 8pm.

2) Storms will remain widely scattered mainly over the Piedmont
into mid evening. Cannot rule out isolated wind damage but
biggest issue will be lightning and heavy rain.

4) More coverage of storms expected Thursday afternoon, some may
be severe.

Radar over our area has been sparse with echoes with main
activity further north and especially south of I-40 in NC where
better low/mid level support exists. Ridge sits overhead and
seems to be keeping storms limited, though we had some trees
down earlier this afternoon in Alleghany County VA. Will likely
see convection stay isolated/widely scattered mainly in the
Piedmont of VA/NC into late evening before it ends.

Fog will form late tonight once we clear out but should be
patchy in nature.

Previous discussion...

Ridging at the surface and aloft will gradual weaken through
tomorrow night. Currently, plenty of moisture and surface
heating have combined to create CAPEs between 2500 and 5000 J/kg
at the surface across parts of the area, especially towards
northern NC and south central VA. Areas along an instability
gradient across northern and central NC are starting to see some
stronger storms develop. DCAPE is also between 1200 to 1500
J/kg, which is very high. Wind shear is lacking however, so we
should see single and multicell clusters capable of damaging
winds/downbursts. Storm motion is also quite slow around 5 knots
or so, with southerly motions due to the anticyclonic high
pressure. Given the weak storm motions, along with deep warm
cloud layers to 500mb and PWATs around 1.5 inches, expect some
training cells to drop heavy rainfall, possibly leading to
urban, small stream, and flash flooding in that same area.
Storms will weaken later tonight with a few showers possible
over the piedmont late.

Subsidence seems to be limiting chances for showers and storms
in other parts of the forecast area, but expect debris clouds
through this evening. For tomorrow, expect more of the same.
Convection will be more widespread with weakening subsidence,
and instability will be strong again. Damaging winds would again
be the main concern with any stronger storms, and flooding will
also continue to be a hazard.

Heat index values are currently around 105F near Lynchburg,
Danville, and Reidsville. The current Heat Warnings and
Advisories end at 8 PM this evening. Temperatures overnight
remain warm in the 60s and 70s. Another Heat Advisory is in
effect for parts for NW NC and the VA piedmont for tomorrow.

Confidence in the near term is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot and humid weather to continue into
this weekend.

2) The chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
steadily rise each day.

High pressure that has been sitting over the region this past
week will move off the southeast coast and into the western
Atlantic Friday. Meanwhile, a weak upper level low will wobble
over the southern states through the weekend. With this change
in the mid- to upper- level weather pattern, the chance for
afternoon and evening pulse storms will increase. Storms will
develop across the mountains in the afternoon, then drift
eastward over the foothills and piedmont. Areal coverage of
storms will be scattered during the afternoon, then become
numerous in the evening with outflow boundaries triggering more
storms. With lose of heating, storms should fade by midnight.

Clouds and showers will help trim high temperatures back some,
into the low 80s to low 90s Friday and Saturday. However, dew
points will remain elevated (mid 60s to mid 70s), keeping
conditions uncomfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for temperatures to remain above normal.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon.

The threat of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
continue Sunday and Monday. A cold front is expected to slowly
track across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This front
will bring a higher chance for showers and thunderstorms to the
area. This front should move south of the area Wednesday into
Thursday with slightly cooler drier airmass overtaking the area.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period for
all terminals.

Exception being some LIFR fog at LWB and possibly MVFR/IFR at
LYH/DAN/BCB, with LYH/DAN having showers/storms nearby this
evening.

Winds will stay mainly under 5kts and variable in direction
under the high pressure into Thu afternoon. The fog will lift by
12-14z. Should more coverage in storms Thu afternoon but still
to scattered to have in the TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next
week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022>024-
     033>035-043>045.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ022-023-
     033>035-043>047-058-059.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ046-
     047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ003>005-019-
     020.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ004>006-
     020.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
758 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ022-023-033>035-043>047-058-059-270000-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
758 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia
and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday
afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe with damaging
wind the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-024-032-WVZ042>044-507-508-270000-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Rockbridge-Patrick-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
758 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia
and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday
afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe with damaging
wind the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1046 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

NCZ005-VAZ033-043-044-260315-
Rockingham NC-Henry VA-Franklin VA-Pittsylvania VA-
1046 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN
ROCKINGHAM...SOUTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...EASTERN HENRY AND
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF DANVILLE
THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

At 1046 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Callands, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Danville...
Eden...
Mayfield...
Callands...
Axton...
Snow Creek...
and Leatherwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3655 7985 3691 7973 3691 7954 3654 7944
      3654 7951 3651 7951 3650 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 000DEG 11KT 3681 7962

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1047 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VAZ058-260315-
Halifax VA-
1047 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL HALIFAX COUNTY THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

At 1047 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mt Laurel, or near Clover, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Halifax...
Clover...
Scottsburg...Mt Laurel...
and Crystal Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 7881 3681 7904 3699 7884 3698 7881
      3696 7880 3695 7878 3696 7877 3699 7877
      3697 7874 3694 7873 3693 7873 3692 7875
      3689 7871 3686 7868 3686 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 035DEG 7KT 3691 7879

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

WP