High Wind Watch 2, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
731 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the southeast will continue to bring dry
weather through tomorrow morning. A strong front will approach
from the west on Thursday afternoon, resulting in the next
chance of precipitation for the region. A brief cool down behind
the front on Friday, will be followed by warmer conditions into
the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EST Wednesday...

No major changes were made to the forecast this evening. Some
temperature adjustments were made, and will continued to be
monitored as cloud cover has kept locations east of the Blue
Ridge slightly warmer than guidance. A slower cool down in
temperatures this evening was introduced to the forecast to
account for this. No other changes were made to the forecast at
this time.

Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions are expected through Thursday morning.

2. Rain will begin to arrive as early as Thursday afternoon as
a cold front moves east.

Will begin to lose the influence of high pressure overhead as it
shifts east over the Atlantic tonight. In-situ wedging to
continue through Thursday morning, with the main cold front
remaining just to the west through Thursday evening.

Will see showers begin to develop by Thursday afternoon as
moisture is drawn northward from the Atlantic and Gulf. Most of
this rain will be along and east of the Blue Ridge through
Thursday evening. Lighter rain west of the Blue Ridge until the
main front arrives, bringing with it a line of rain with heavier
downpours.

Although the region is mostly cloudy this afternoon, increasing
warm air advection from the southwest has resulted in
temperatures warming into the 40s and low 50s. Will see a
couple more hours of warming, but then temperatures will fall
back into the 20s and 30s overnight. Increasing low level jet
ahead of the front will cause winds to gradually increase
throughout Thursday, especially on favored ridges across far SW
Virginia and SE West Virginia. Gusts in the 20 MPH to low 30 MPH
range will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Cold front will cross the region on Thursday night, through
Friday morning.

2. Strong wind gusts will develop across the mountain ridges on
Friday morning in the wake of the cold front's passage.

3. Dry high pressure will pass overhead on Saturday, making for
abundant sunshine and temperatures near to slightly above
normal.

The brunt of the rainfall is forecast to fall Thursday night,
and occur east of the Blue Ridge, particularly along & east of
Highway 29, due to a surge of moisture arriving from the south.
And while confidence is high that the entire area will receive
rainfall, totals are still in question. Rainfall amounts east of
the Blue Ridge are most likely to range from 0.5" to 0.60"
where moisture is most abundant. For large portions of the
mountains however, lower totals are forecast, with a 60% to 70%
chance of these areas receiving at least 0.25". While the
occasional rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out, the
chances of thunderstorms occurring anywhere within the service
area are very low.

The cold front will pass rapidly across the mountains shortly
after midnight Friday, with rainfall diminishing through dawn as
dry and cool high pressure approaches. Winds speeds will
increase through the remainder of the night once the winds shift
from the northwest, with gusts along the higher mountain ridges
ranging from 35 mph to locally 50 mph by late morning, before
speeds gradually settle down Friday night. The cooler air will
cause residual rain showers to change to snow showers, which may
persist into late afternoon along the ridges of southeast West
Virginia. Any snowfall totals are forecast to be modest given
very limited remaining moisture to work with.

High pressure will arrive Friday night and remain settled
across our region through Saturday night, maintaining generally
dry conditions. Given increased sunshine on Saturday as high
pressure passes overhead, afternoon temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal for the second half of December.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers Tuesday, highest chances in the mountains.
Otherwise, dry for most.

2. Temperatures above normal.

A weak 500mb over the eastern US will pull away from the area
Sunday, dragging a cold front farther east towards the Atlantic
Coast, with upper flow turning west-northwesterly. A strong ridge
will build over the south central US for the beginning of the week,
strengthening the northwesterly downstream flow over the
Appalachians, which will keep temperatures slightly cooler for
Monday. The ridge will move eastward with time, becoming more
centered over the Gulf through the long term forecast period, with
its influence increasing over the local forecast area, and prompting
an increasing trend in temperatures. At the surface, high pressure
moves into the area from the west Sunday, and moves across the area
through the first half of the week. A low pressure system looks to
develop in the northern Plains, and track east towards the Great
Lakes towards the midweek time frame, pushing the high over the Mid
Atlantic offshore. Return flow around the high and southwesterly
flow ahead of the cold front associated with the low will draw
moisture northward into the area, as well as warmer air, and so will
see increasing chances for rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be mostly above normal through the first half of
the work week, between 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Highs
will be in the 40s and 50s, nearly touching 60 in some places in the
NC Piedmont by Wednesday. Lows will be coldest Monday morning, in
the 20s for most, but trending steadily warmer, in the mid to upper
30s by Wednesday, which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight
hours, and through mid day on Thursday before MVFR to IFR CIGs
move into the region from the south around 17 UTC for DAN, 18
UTC for ROA, BCB, BLF, and LYH, and 19 UTC for LWB. These lower
CIGs are expected to be accompanied by rain showers at first,
that look to transition to more widespread rainfall by the late
afternoon and early evening hours for terminals along and east
of the Blue Ridge. This area of rain showers looks to also have
some LLWS associated with it as 50-60 knot 850mb LLJ is expected
to develop along and east of the Blue Ridge Thursday afternoon
and evening. This may lead to some turbulence for all terminals
tomorrow. BLF does also look to become gusty as southeast winds
look to persist through the mid morning and afternoon hours.
Stronger wind gusts look to push into the region beyond 00 UTC
as a cold front pushes through the region late Thursday into
Friday morning.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain chances increase areawide Thursday night with the approach
and passage of a cold front, which could bring sub- VFR
cigs/vsbys, with rain/snow showers Thursday night. Lingering
sub- VFR Friday in the mountains with VFR east, becoming VFR
Saturday areawide. Strong winds are anticipated Friday as well,
behind the frontal passage Thursday. The weekend looks dry, but
increasing clouds are likely.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
734 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-190045-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
734 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-190045-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
734 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected on Friday across the
higher elevations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.